At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis at all maturities except the longest, increased as much as 25 to 30 basis points. On a real basis, however, rates were essentially unchanged at all maturities. The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics […]
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis increased at all maturities from around 30 to 50 basis points. It was essentially the same situation on a real basis, with real rates up around 20 to near 40 basis points at all maturities. The interest rate environment […]
At the end of the 4th quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were up around 30 basis points in all but the longest maturities, which were down slightly, versus the end of the prior quarter. On a real basis, the story was similar, with longer term real rates up with the […]
At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal and real basis, were largely unchanged at all maturities. At every maturity, the basis point movement appears to be under 10 basis points at all maturities, both on a real and nominal basis. The interest rate environment has the ability […]
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, edged higher at the short end, up about 15-20 basis points for maturities under 2 years, and down on the longer end, up to around 10 basis points for maturities over 10 years. On a real basis, rates edged […]
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, edged higher at the short end, up about 20-30 basis points for maturities under 2 years. On a real basis, rates were largely unchanged. The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics in a number […]
At the end of the 4th quarter of 2016, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were notably higher at every maturity, with increases for 5 years or longer of 50 or so basis points. On a real basis, rates we also up across the board, albeit slightly less for maturities of 5 years or […]
At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2016, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were essentially unchanged at the shortest and longest ends, moving up a tad, as much as 20 basis points or so, for all maturities between. On a real basis, for maturities of 5 years or more, yields at the […]
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2016, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were essentially unchanged at the shortest end, but eased up a touch as longer maturities are considered, with what appears to be a 25 or 30 basis point increase for all maturities 5 years or greater. On a real […]
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2016, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were essentially unchanged for maturities of one year or less, but around 30 basis points or so lower for virtually all maturities in excess of this. On a real basis, yields were around 30 to 60 basis points lower […]
At the end of the 4th quarter of 2015, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were slightly higher in all maturities, ranging from around 10 basis points to about 40 basis points. On a real basis, yields were only a touch higher, as the increase in nominal yields was offset by a slightly more […]
At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2015, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were essentially unchanged in the shorter maturities versus the quarter prior, while yields for 5-year and longer maturities edged lower by about 25 basis points. On a real basis, however, these rates were higher, reflecting a lower inflationary environment. […]
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2015, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were largely unchanged in the shortest maturities versus the quarter prior, but higher as maturities lengthened, about 50 basis points higher on 30-year maturities, but only about 30 basis points higher on the more relevant (to commercial real estate) 10-year […]
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2015, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were fairly unchanged in the shortest maturities, a touch higher in the 2-year maturity, and about 20 to 30 basis points higher for all maturities longer than 2 years. On a real basis, these yields dropped similarly, as the […]
On a quarterly basis we publish a yield curve update, showing the shift is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve at the end of a quarter over the prior quarter. What is more directly of interest to commercial real estate investors, however, is the 5 year U.S. Treasury yield, given its relationship both to commercial borrowing […]
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ~Yogi Berra In the accompanying chart of the United States civilian unemployment rate from January 1948 to April 2018, one can clearly see that the economic recovery we are currently in, if defined by a drop in unemployment, is one of the longest and most pronounced […]
