Best house in a bad neighborhood. (via @CreditSuisse) pic.twitter.com/W82CA7qJlD — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 3, 2019 As can be seen in the chart in this “best house in a bad neighborhood” tweet by Carl Quintanilla, the leading economic indicators for the United States have declined significantly, of late registering below 100. However, as indicated by […]
Above is a chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis of the net-exports-to-GDP ratio for the United States. Notably, it has been negative since the late 1970s, and for the last decade or two has been considerably less so that its most negative dip in 2005 or so. Economists have proposed various reasons […]
There has been considerable discussion of late, and for that matter in recent years, of the Fed’s dwindling reserve of firepower to help mitigate the next recession. It has been a while, but surely one will come at some point. They always have. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sums the situation up nicely with a […]
1/3 St. Louis #Fed: Does the recent flattening of the #yieldcurve portend #recession? Not necessarily. The flattening of the real yield curve may simply reflect the fact real consumption growth is not expected to accelerate or decelerate from present growth rate of about 1% y/y pic.twitter.com/Hvf7Phlcwq — Don Curren (@dbcurren) August 20, 2019 This is […]
Longest US economic expansion also means many adults have experienced one or no #recession via @SoberLook @washingtonpost @jkempenerg pic.twitter.com/T8U5kV3Nku — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 19, 2019
Excluding the US 45% of corporate investment grade bonds globally trade at negative rates! @DeutscheBank via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/Es9ePhDxVH — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) August 15, 2019 This most definitely goes under the heading of “different.” For commercial property investors considering cap rates, the heading might be “consider the alternative.”
George Ratiu, Director of Quantitative & Commercial Research with the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), joins the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss in some depth the annual Market Expectations and Realities Outlook Report for 2019 ~ Uncharted Territory, just published by NAR, Deloitte, and Situs RERC. They’ve elected to add “Uncharted […]
Brian Bailey, Subject Matter Expert, Commercial Real Estate at the Atlanta Federal Reserve, joins Michael Bull on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss his perspective on the commercial real estate market, including our current economic cycle and timing thereof. He talks about different commercial property sectors, increased construction of luxury multifamily in the face […]
Chief Economist at JLL Ryan Severino appears on a commercial real estate related show to discuss the current status of the economy and related implications for commercial property investors. He notes that he does not expect a big slowdown, projecting 2% to 2.5% growth in the coming year. He thinks the fundamentals of the […]
PwC Partner & Business Development Leader Mitch Roschelle joins the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show in-studio to discuss his analysis of the real estate market in 2019. Among the topics discusses are the current economic climate, including how the United States is linked to developments in other economies around the world, supply and […]
The difference in yield between that of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities, commonly referred to as TIPS, and the yield of ordinary U.S. Treasury securities with the same maturity dates is referred to as the TIPS spread. The chart above shows this spread for various maturites for the past 15 years. Ordinary U.S. Treasury securities don’t initially […]
George Ratiu, Chief Economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss the NAR’s 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook. Topics discussed in this segment include investor sentiment, capitalization rates (cap rates), and vacancy rates, as well as which sectors within commercial real estate are performing best. He […]
George Ratiu joins the of a well known commercial real estate related discussion show to discuss the National Association of REALTORS® Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook, including the market cycle, inflation, and interest rates, with a concentration on the current economic cycle. Of course, discussed is the potential effect on commercial real estate.
At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018, both short and intermediate yields continued their climb begun nearly three years ago. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, five year rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, found themselves testing 3%, with short term (here 1 month) rates following close behind […]
CCIM Chief Economist KC Conway appears on this commercial real estate related show to discuss how the debt market will affect real estate, including interest rates, and debt levels. He notes he believes we are headed back to a 5% rate on 10 year treasuries, which would be quite an increase from the low […]
CCIM Chief Economist KC Conway appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show with its host Michael to present various predictions, principally comments on which commercial real estate sector will come out on top. Included in the discussion are some the the innovations in retailing concepts, experiential and otherwise. He discusses how the bulk of industrial […]
