Category: Economy

Handicapping the End of the Economic Recovery for Commercial Real Estate Investors

May 17, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ~Yogi Berra In the accompanying chart of the United States civilian unemployment rate from January 1948 to April 2018, one can clearly see that the economic recovery we are currently in, if defined by a drop in unemployment, is one of the longest and most pronounced […]

Chart: Florida Just Ahead of Georgia as Leading Exporter to Cuba

May 01, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

  Looking at the first chart herein, one can see that among U.S. states Florida exports the most to Cuba in the most recent year (2015), albeit with less margin versus number two ranked Georgia that one might guess. Florida’s near $35 million in exports, presumably much of which originates from Miami, represents 18.8% of […]

Considering a Flattening Yield Curve and Implications for the Economy

Apr 26, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

In a recent Business Insider article, the indicator with an almost perfect record of predicting US recessions is edging towards a tipping point, Macquarie Bank was quoted, “The yield curve has inverted within the 24 months preceding each of the past five recessions, and has only inverted once without a recession following in the ensuing […]

Chart: Putting Recent Rate Increases in Historical Perspective

Apr 20, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Given the rise of late in interest rates, it seemed an opportune time to put rates, particularly those of the 5-Year United States Treasury most closely linked to commercial property borrowing rates, into perspective. The accompanying chart, “5-Year United States Treasury Rates from January 1990 to April 2018,” gives a nice visual perspective. In this […]

Chart: Fed Funds Rate Breaks Out of Near Zero Range Most Familiar to Many

Apr 19, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Assuming a person becomes financially / economically aware around the age of 22 (I can hear the chorus, “if at all”), then anyone born after 1985 has only known a near zero short term interest rate environment. Even those older than this to a degree seem to have begun to taken it for granted. As can […]

Commercial Borrowing Cost Quarterly – 2018 Q1

Apr 13, 2018 - Economy, Financing - 0 Comments - Standard

On a quarterly basis we publish a yield curve update, showing the shift is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve at the end of a quarter over the prior quarter. What is more directly of interest to commercial real estate investors, however, is the 5 year U.S. Treasury yield, given its relationship both to commercial borrowing […]

Yield Curve Quarterly Snapshot – 2018 Q1

Apr 11, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

At the end of the 1st quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis at all maturities from around 30 to 50 basis point. It was essentially the same situation on a real basis, with real rates up around 20 to near 40 basis points at all maturities. The interest rate environment has […]

Video: Texas A&M Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center Dr. Mark Dotzour on Economy, Jobs and International Affairs

Apr 05, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Dr. Mark Dotzour, the Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University which conducts research on financial, socioeconomic, public policy, trade, legal, land use and local market analysis issues related to real estate, while at the the Realtors Land Institute Conference & Expo, is interviewed by Michael Bull […]

Video: MarketGraphics Founder & CEO Edsel Charles on Predicting Economic Cycles

Apr 04, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

 While at the Realtors Land Institute Conference & Expo, America’s Commercial Real Estate Show host Michael Bull talks with Edsel Charles, the Founder and CEO of MarketGraphics Research Group, which provides market research information for builders, developers, banks, city governments and others. Among the topics discussed are the economic and political outlook for 2018, cycle […]

Video: Mitch Roschelle and David Leavitt of PwC Trump Effect on Economy and Real Estate via PwC

Mar 24, 2018 - Economy, Taxation - 0 Comments - Standard

Mitch Roschelle and David Leavitt with global accounting and professional service company PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) join host Michael Bull on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss President Trump’s effect on commercial real estate and the economy overall. They discuss a number of topics including trends in the economic outlook, interest rate changes, tax reform impacts, […]

Video: Economy and Business Trajectory is Discussed by Anthony Graziano, Chairman of Integra Realty Resources

Mar 07, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

 Integra Realty Resources’s Viewpoint 2018 report is discussed by its Chairman, Anthony Graziano. Among the topics discussed are the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, interest rates, cap rates, investments, challenges, and opportunities for the economy, market and one’s business.  Integra Realty Resources, based in Miami, is considered an industry leader as the largest independent commercial real […]

Video: Ernst & Young National Tax REIT Leader Dianne Umberger with on the Impact of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Jan 24, 2018 - Economy, Taxation - 0 Comments - Standard

 Dianne Umberger, National Tax REIT Leader with Ernst & Young, appears with show host Michael Bull on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to talk about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act impact on the overall economy and real estate, including commercial real estate. Among the topics she discusses are the potential impact on jobs […]

Yield Curve Quarterly Snapshot – 2017 Q4

Jan 11, 2018 - Economy, Financing - 0 Comments - Standard

At the end of the 4th quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis, were up around 30 basis points in all but the longest maturities, which were down slightly, versus the end of the prior quarter. On a real basis, the story was similar, with longer term real rates up with the […]

Yield Curve Quarterly Snapshot – 2017 Q3

Oct 15, 2017 - Economy, Financing - 0 Comments - Standard

At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2017, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal and real basis, were largely unchanged at all maturities.  At every maturity, the basis point movement appears to be under 10 basis points at all maturities, both on a real and nominal basis. The interest rate environment has the ability […]