Category: Economy

Video: PwC Partner Mitch Roschelle Discusses 2019 for Commercial Real Estate Investors

Jan 22, 2019 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

PwC Partner & Business Development Leader Mitch Roschelle joins the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show in-studio to discuss his analysis of the real estate market in 2019. Among the topics discusses are the current economic climate, including how the United States is linked to developments in other economies around the world, supply and […]

Ordinary vs. Inflation Indexed Treasuries “TIPS” Spread Indicates Inflation Expectations Dipping

Jan 11, 2019 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

The difference in yield between that of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities, commonly referred to as TIPS, and the yield of ordinary U.S. Treasury securities with the same maturity dates is referred to as the  TIPS spread.  The chart above shows this spread for various maturites for the past 15 years. Ordinary U.S. Treasury securities don’t initially […]

Video: NAR Chief Economist George Ratiu Discusses Commercial Real Estate Investor Sentiment, Sector Outlook

Dec 26, 2018 - Economy, Trends - 0 Comments - Standard

George Ratiu, Chief Economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss the NAR’s 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook. Topics discussed in this segment include investor sentiment, capitalization rates (cap rates), and vacancy rates, as well as which sectors within commercial real estate are performing best. He […]

Commercial Borrowing Cost: Rate Watch Quarterly 2018 Q3

Oct 23, 2018 - Economy, Financing - 0 Comments - Standard

At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018, both short and intermediate yields continued their climb begun nearly three years ago. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, five year rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, found themselves testing 3%, with short term (here 1 month) rates following close behind […]

Video: CCIM Institute Senior Economist KC Conway Discusses Which Commercial Sector Wins Going Forward

Oct 16, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

CCIM Chief Economist KC Conway appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show with its host Michael to present various predictions, principally comments on which commercial real estate sector will come out on top. Included in the discussion are some the the innovations in retailing concepts, experiential and otherwise. He discusses how the bulk of industrial […]

Video: A Discussion with CCIM Institute Senior Economist KC Conway; Headwinds or Tailwinds for Commercial Real Estate?

Oct 16, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

 CCIM Institute Senior Economist KC Conway joins Michael on his commercial real estate show to give his overall economic forecast and discuss how factors like trade wars and disruption can affect commercial real estate. He discusses things like the risks of tariffs and trade war risks and what history tells us about these, the […]

Video: CCIM Institute Senior Economist KC Conway Discusses the Economy’s Effect on Real Estate

Oct 12, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Kiernan “KC” Conway, Senior Economist at the CCIM Institute, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to talk about the current economic cycle and how it is affecting the commercial real estate market. Conway notes general optimism, with a couple of caveats, the upcoming midterm elections and what is going on with tariffs. He believes […]

Yield Curve Quarterly Snapshot – 2018 Q2

Jul 01, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis at all maturities except the longest, increased as much as 25 to 30 basis points. On a real basis, however, rates were essentially unchanged at all maturities. The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics […]

Video: CCIM Institute Chief Economist KC Conway Bullish on U.S. Economy

May 23, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

 In this video, KC Conway, Chief Economist at the CCIM Institute, joins the show host to discuss – if one could refer to such bubbling with enthusiasm as discussing – the U.S. economic state, including job market growth, home building affected by economy, interest rate volatility, net operating income (NOI) concerns, monthly jobs reports, truth […]

Handicapping the End of the Economic Recovery for Commercial Real Estate Investors

May 17, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ~Yogi Berra In the accompanying chart of the United States civilian unemployment rate from January 1948 to April 2018, one can clearly see that the economic recovery we are currently in, if defined by a drop in unemployment, is one of the longest and most pronounced […]

Chart: Florida Just Ahead of Georgia as Leading Exporter to Cuba

May 01, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

  Looking at the first chart herein, one can see that among U.S. states Florida exports the most to Cuba in the most recent year (2015), albeit with less margin versus number two ranked Georgia that one might guess. Florida’s near $35 million in exports, presumably much of which originates from Miami, represents 18.8% of […]

Considering a Flattening Yield Curve and Implications for the Economy

Apr 26, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

In a recent Business Insider article, the indicator with an almost perfect record of predicting US recessions is edging towards a tipping point, Macquarie Bank was quoted, “The yield curve has inverted within the 24 months preceding each of the past five recessions, and has only inverted once without a recession following in the ensuing […]

Chart: Putting Recent Rate Increases in Historical Perspective

Apr 20, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Given the rise of late in interest rates, it seemed an opportune time to put rates, particularly those of the 5-Year United States Treasury most closely linked to commercial property borrowing rates, into perspective. The accompanying chart, “5-Year United States Treasury Rates from January 1990 to April 2018,” gives a nice visual perspective. In this […]

Chart: Fed Funds Rate Breaks Out of Near Zero Range Most Familiar to Many

Apr 19, 2018 - Economy - 0 Comments - Standard

Assuming a person becomes financially / economically aware around the age of 22 (I can hear the chorus, “if at all”), then anyone born after 1985 has only known a near zero short term interest rate environment. Even those older than this to a degree seem to have begun to taken it for granted. As can […]

Commercial Borrowing Cost Quarterly – 2018 Q1

Apr 13, 2018 - Economy, Financing - 0 Comments - Standard

On a quarterly basis we publish a yield curve update, showing the shift is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve at the end of a quarter over the prior quarter. What is more directly of interest to commercial real estate investors, however, is the 5 year U.S. Treasury yield, given its relationship both to commercial borrowing […]