In this 25 minute videos, NAR Senior Economist Gay Cororotan shares their outlook. This discussion includes the impact of inflation, rising interest rates, the infrastructure bill, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine (and knock-on effects). Gay notes that the recent inflation number of 8.5% is the highest in 40 years. The discussion moves on to […]
With news of Starbucks unionizing and personal experiences we have all had with unavailability of workers, this chart should come as no surprise. Nonetheless, it is a stunning thing to see it visually in a chart like the one above. The peak just before the plunge was 63.5%. Two months later, it bottomed out at […]
The 5-year TIPS spread, after almost calmly sitting a bit elevated over pre-pandemic levels in late 2021, has now spiked of a sudden spiked to the highest level in a number of years and to a level about 70% higher than where it was generally hovering pre-pandemic. There has been much talk in the financial […]
Listen as CCIM Economist K.C. Conway shares his outlook on economic issues and how the may affect commercial real estate. Discussed in this video are expected interest rate hikes, inflation trends, risks, and opportunities. He thinks there will be 4 to 6 rate hikes this year and that one of them could be 50 bp. […]
Economist Calvin Schnure with Nareit shares their forecast including performance, inflation, interest rates, GDP, jobs, and logistics – plus some opportunities in the current market.
The 5-year TIPS spread, after almost calmly sitting a bit elevated over pre-pandemic levels, of a sudden spiked from its prior month close of 2.51% to 2.95% on October 25th. There has been much talk in the financial press of inflation pressures, but except for an initial move to the 2.5% range this has not […]
Brian Bailey, Real Estate Subject Matter Expert at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, shares his view on the commercial real estate market, including retail and office properties, supply chain issues, inflation expectations and the jobs outlook. He talks about the effects of vaccination rates on manufacturing and issues with people not being yet able […]
The 5-year TIPS spread continues to steadily hover around the 2.5% range, closing at 2.51% on September 30th, nearly exactly the same as the prior quarter close of 2.46%. If one considers the pre-pandemic level to be 1.75%, then the TIPS spread, and thus inflation expectations, continue to be about 75 basis points higher than […]
Economist Calvin Schnure from the National Association of REITs, more commonly referred to as NAREIT, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show with its Michael Bull to share an update on REITs (real estate investment trusts) and how the economy, trends in work from home, and the recovery will impact the interest rate environment, various […]
As one can see in these charts, the 5-year TIPS spread continues to sit around the 2.5% range, closing at 2.46% on June 29th, the last trading day of the month. Eyeballing this chart, if one calls the pre-pandemic level 1.75%, which is debatable (thus the “ish” in the title), then the TIPS spread, and […]
Above is the chart for the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five years ending May 31, 2021.A calculation of the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity, this spread is a useful and […]
Above are charts for the 5-Year and 10-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five years ending April 30, 2021. This is a calculation of the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. It is […]
The TIPS spread is the difference in the yields between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). It is a useful and oft-quoted measure of expectations for (CPI) inflation in the financial markets. The spread indicates expected inflation. Real money is buying these bonds. TIPS pay interest every six months, based on a […]
As can be seen in the chart above of the unemployment rate in Miami-Dade for the year ending September 1, 2020, the unemployment rate as of September 1 went back up to 13.0%, not so far from its peak of 14.5% reached two months prior. This followed a welcome decline in the month between to […]
Stephen Ross, the chairman and majority owner of The Related Companies, a global real estate development firm he founded in 1972 that has been and continues to be very active in Miami, and owner of the Miami Dolphins, discusses reopening and the state of commercial real estate projects like Hudson Yards in New York in […]
Yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury Notes continue to remain at lows reached as we began the era of COVID. As can be seen in the chart above, these rates, most closely tracked for commercial real estate financing cost, plummeted from what were already considered low levels to under 50 basis points (0.5%), barely hovering over […]
