A recent post by the St. Louis Fed, The Economic Effects of a Pandemic, discussed the economic effects of the Spanish Influenza of 1918-1920, referencing the chart, embedded herein, of average hourly earnings in various United States sectors. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Spanish Flu pandemic infected about a third […]
Part 1 of 2 Part 2 of 2 As the economic expansion continues into the year 2020, we all wonder what can be expected to drive the commercial real estate industry going into the future? In this two part video series, CCIM Chief Economist K.C. Conway joins the show host to offer views on the […]
As can be seen in the accompanying chart, the unemployment rate remains low at 3.5%. It has, however, crept up from its recent even lower -the lowest since 2007 – levels of 3.0%. These minuscule levels of unemployment are a marked improvement from the 12.4% peak reached in 2009 following the subprime mortgage crisis. An […]
Mitch Roschelle, Partner and NY Metro Business Development Leader with PwC, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to talk about the potential impact tariffs could have on our economy and the commercial real estate industry. In this episode, he quickly adjusts the conversation to talk about the economy, and potential effects of tariffs and […]
K.C. Conway, Chief Economist with CCIM and Director of the Alabama Center for Real Estate, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show with host Michael to discuss his opinions and thoughts regarding tariffs, the economic cycle, and how they may or may not impact the commercial real estate market. He discusses the devastating effect the […]
Best house in a bad neighborhood. (via @CreditSuisse) pic.twitter.com/W82CA7qJlD — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 3, 2019 As can be seen in the chart in this “best house in a bad neighborhood” tweet by Carl Quintanilla, the leading economic indicators for the United States have declined significantly, of late registering below 100. However, as indicated by […]
Above is a chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis of the net-exports-to-GDP ratio for the United States. Notably, it has been negative since the late 1970s, and for the last decade or two has been considerably less so that its most negative dip in 2005 or so. Economists have proposed various reasons […]
There has been considerable discussion of late, and for that matter in recent years, of the Fed’s dwindling reserve of firepower to help mitigate the next recession. It has been a while, but surely one will come at some point. They always have. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sums the situation up nicely with a […]
1/3 St. Louis #Fed: Does the recent flattening of the #yieldcurve portend #recession? Not necessarily. The flattening of the real yield curve may simply reflect the fact real consumption growth is not expected to accelerate or decelerate from present growth rate of about 1% y/y pic.twitter.com/Hvf7Phlcwq — Don Curren (@dbcurren) August 20, 2019 This is […]
Longest US economic expansion also means many adults have experienced one or no #recession via @SoberLook @washingtonpost @jkempenerg pic.twitter.com/T8U5kV3Nku — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 19, 2019
Excluding the US 45% of corporate investment grade bonds globally trade at negative rates! @DeutscheBank via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/Es9ePhDxVH — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) August 15, 2019 This most definitely goes under the heading of “different.” For commercial property investors considering cap rates, the heading might be “consider the alternative.”
George Ratiu, Director of Quantitative & Commercial Research with the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), joins the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss in some depth the annual Market Expectations and Realities Outlook Report for 2019 ~ Uncharted Territory, just published by NAR, Deloitte, and Situs RERC. They’ve elected to add “Uncharted […]
Brian Bailey, Subject Matter Expert, Commercial Real Estate at the Atlanta Federal Reserve, joins Michael Bull on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss his perspective on the commercial real estate market, including our current economic cycle and timing thereof. He talks about different commercial property sectors, increased construction of luxury multifamily in the face […]
Chief Economist at JLL Ryan Severino appears on a commercial real estate related show to discuss the current status of the economy and related implications for commercial property investors. He notes that he does not expect a big slowdown, projecting 2% to 2.5% growth in the coming year. He thinks the fundamentals of the […]
PwC Partner & Business Development Leader Mitch Roschelle joins the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show in-studio to discuss his analysis of the real estate market in 2019. Among the topics discusses are the current economic climate, including how the United States is linked to developments in other economies around the world, supply and […]
The difference in yield between that of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities, commonly referred to as TIPS, and the yield of ordinary U.S. Treasury securities with the same maturity dates is referred to as the TIPS spread. The chart above shows this spread for various maturites for the past 15 years. Ordinary U.S. Treasury securities don’t initially […]
