Real Page Director of Analytics Jay Parson joins host Michael Bull to discuss the growth of the multifamily market and share predictions for the market in 2016.
Miami Downtown Development Authority Releases Summer Residential Market Research
The Miami DDA has released it summer residential market research report. Some key points include:
- Nearly 90 percent of the new residential units built duirng this cycle have been absorbed, which has fueled rising prices for condos as well as rental rate increases for apartments
- Pricing for existing condos is up nearly 7%
- Rental rates for conventional apartments are up by as much as 10.5% for single bedroom units
- Supply is stable and absorption is strong
- Less than 1,900 units have been delivered so far during this cycle
- 86% of those units having been absorbed; another 8% are set to close in the next 60 days
- Lower rental rates may be coming
- The delivery of 3,000 new units by mid-2016 will represent the largest supply increase in a decade, presumably leading to price stabilization
For more detailed information, view the full report here.
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Strength in Coconut Grove’s Limited Office Market
As anyone looking for office space in Coconut Grove can attest, finding space is no small task, and when you do, beware, it is a lessor’s market. Development in the area has been dominated by high-end luxury condos, perhaps keeping new office space from being developed.
Vacancy is Declining
And rent is jumping!
As space is absorbed with no additional space added
Charts courtesy of CoStar.
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Pardon the Math: Investing in Condos vs. Multifamily Properties
The returns than investors in individual condo units will settle for never cease to surprise me. It makes some sense to settle for less return, somewhat less, as investing in a condo is easier and more hassle free. Also, there is a “strength in numbers,” “standardization of value” aspect to it, with properties selling for more or less some price simply because they do, and reliably so. However, I submit that it comes at a price.
To illustrate this point I am going to to a use a representative condo in Miami as a comparison versus a typical multifamily property. There was a sale of a condo in at an established and nice building for $650,000. This particular unit will have property taxes of about $13,900 for an investor, and condo association fees of $15,200 per year. In addition to this, the condo, on average, has about $2,000 a year in additional maintenance costs, appliances, carpet, paint, and other maintenance expenses not covered by the association. Occupancy is strong at the building, so a low vacancy assumption of 5% is reasonable. Additionally, given that this is a condo, and as such that it has on site management, a lower management cost (allocation if self-managed) is also reasonable. We’ll assume a low $150 per month in management cost, $1,800 annually. Fair rent for this property is about $4,200 per month.
These assumptions are displayed at the right under the heading “Representative Condo Property.” As can be seen, the net of this is that an investor’s current return on investment from net operating income, i.e. its cap rate, would be equal to about 2% of the purchase price.
Now let’s consider the purchase of a typical multifamily property investment in the area, one with several units. The properties tend to provide a current return (net operating income / purchase price) today in the 5% to 7% range. For purposes of comparison, we’ll assume a purchase price affording a 6% current return (capitalization rate). This return could be construed as apples to apples as in both cases, for the individual condo and the multifamily property, the returns are for net operating income including expenses, whether paid or internally allocated, for management of the property.
Here is where I’ll lose some people, but not the truly investment minded. Prices over time should more or less move in line with changes in rental income. With multifamily properties, which are traded as investment vehicles, this tends to be the case in the short-term and long-term, adjusted for changes in interest rates, projected rental income growth, and other economic variables that affect the cap rate. With individual condos, the low cap rate hints at a different kind of market, more like art than of an investment, such that in the near term they can move out of lockstep with rental income. Over time, however, the movement should be more or less in line with changes in rental income.
So what kind of return does this offer? Above, we’ve crunched the numbers, showing the returns for an all cash buyer given different rental growth rate assumptions. This analysis shows that, with the higher 3% rental growth assumption, the after tax return equates to 3.5%, a 5.6% pre-tax equivalent in the highest bracket. These returns are better than the 1.99% current return, but are still not so exciting, particularly given that investing in real estate involves risk and lack of liquidity.
Few investments in condos have been made with this low of an exception of return, so what gives? Buyers of individual condos seldom make any such calculations. They don’t do it today, and they’ve not done so for years. Consequently, values have increased well in excess of rental income growth in recent years, and buyers have no clear reason to expect that this will not continue. I can’t make a rock solid case for the “end of the party” in the near-term, either.
At this point I need to mention that leverage isn’t much of an option in this individual condo analysis. Given that current rates are more than twice as high as the cap rate, income wouldn’t cover the interest, let alone amortization, even with a 50% loan. Any amount of leverage would decrease income in this example, and would result in lower returns with any reasonable set of assumptions.
Now let’s consider a typical multifamily investment using the same assumptions but with a 6% cap rate. As can be seen at right, the higher current income results in higher rates, 5.8% after tax, a 9.7% pre-tax equivalent for investors in the 39.6% bracket, again assuming the higher 3% net income growth rate. Looked at differently, one could say that an investor is behind 3.1% per year with the individual condo investment versus a typical multifamily property. This may not sound like much, but it builds over time.
Further, given that in this case the cap rate is higher than prevailing mortgage rates, the multifamily property allows for leverage to be utilized to enhance potential returns. Above, we’ve assumed 40% of the purchase price is borrowed at 4.5% with a 25 year amortization. As can be seen, with the higher 3% rental income growth rate assumption, returns bump up to 7.6% after-tax, a 12.6% pre-tax equivalent at the 39.6% tax bracket. Given some of the comforting aspects of real estate ownership, that you can touch it, this is the kind of return that compares favorably with other investment alternatives.
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Video: Office Market Update from CoStar
Walter Page, Director of Research for Costar Group, joins host Michael Bull to discuss the office market.
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Vote on Controversial Miami 21 Zoning Code Proposed Changes Deferred to Late January
Scene from Miami City Commission Meeting on November 19, 2015 Where a Vote on Controversial Changes to the Miami 21 Zoning Code Were Deferred
The Miami City Commission elected to defer a vote on controversial changes to the Miami 21 Zoning Code until late January. The changes are controversial mainly as they would drastically increase the minimum lot size for development in some transects.
A video of the meeting may be viewed at the City of Miami’s Live and Archived City Commission Page. From that page, view the November 19, 2015 Planning and Zoning meeting.
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Video: Office Investment Market Update
Walter Page, Director of Research at the CoStar Group, joins host Michael Bull to discuss the current state of the office Investment market.
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Miami Commercial Real Estate News November 19, 2015
Authority lease to add parking after challenge
A new public-private partnership between the city’s parking agency and a development firm is expected to bring residential and retail development to Downtown Miami, along with extra public parking.
The Off-Street Parking Board on Nov. 4 approved a ground lease between the Miami Parking Authoriy…
Commercial land values soar in Design District
As the Tory Burches of retail move in, the real estate values move up. Miami’s Design District is poised to become the Rodeo Drive of South Florida, and developers are catching on. The emerging neighborhood’s impressive catalog of top-shelf merchandise and world renowned brands is giving…
City commission backs OK of self-storage facility
Miami city commissioners are backing up the action of the city’s planning director in granting permission for a self-storage facility to be built in Little Haiti. Planning Director Francisco Garcia determined that developer Banner Storage Group LLC met the criteria to allow a multi-story…
Miami Design District enters new phase of development
A block-long construction site buzzes with activity between Northeast 41st and 42nd Streets at a site dubbed Paradise Plaza, where 60 more ultra-luxury, brand-name stores will open at the end of next year or early 2017.
Towering cranes and closed roads clearly paint the picture of an evolving…
Stiles Managed Properties And Team Win Record 8 “Building of the Year” Awards
Five of its South Florida managed office and retail projects as well as several of its key personnel were recognized.
Firm Arranges $55 Million Sale Of Former Chiquita Banana Site In Miami
The seller paid $11.5 million for the property in 2011.
228,000 SF Leased At Miami Center
The deals include two of the largest office lease transactions in Miami’s CBD this year.
Owner Sells 80% Interest In Brickell Area Office Complex
The Class A office property was purchased in April 2014 for $145.8 million.
Americas Industrial Realty Corp. represented the landlord in the transactions.
1920’s Warehouse Complex In Wynwood Sells For $11 Million
The sale represents a 57% return for MB America’s client within one year.
Chinese Developers to Seek EB-5 Funding For Brickell Towers
An attorney connected with China City Construction Holding Group and American Da Tang Group said the developers are turning to EB-5 investors to help fund construction of the planned CCCC Miami Towers in Miami’s Brickell area. Up to $350 million of the $875 million construction cost of th …
Fairfield Pays $88M for Two Apartment Properties
Fairfield Residential LP acquired two multifamily properties in South Florida for $88.03 million, or approximately $144,000 per unit, from Rockpoint Group LLC and Fifteen Group. Water’s Edge apartments at 10901 NW 40th St. in Sunrise comprises 320 units. Delivered in 1986, the 38 multifamily…
Compass Leases 21,000 SF at Sony Music Bldg
Residential real estate brokerage firm Compass has leased 20,600 square feet at The Sony Music Building at 605 Lincoln Rd. in Miami Beach, FL. Built in 1936, the historic 72,000-square-foot, art deco office building was constructed by architect Robert E. Collins and is the former home to Sony Music…
700 Units Planned in Midtown; Lincoln Road Condo Owners Quit
You want ’em, you got ’em. AMLI Residential, a luxury developer run by Morgan Stanley, has now closed on the Chiquita site in Midtown Miami. A 700 unit apartment project is planned. Who wants some bananas to celebrate?
Terra Completes Glass in South of Fifth, and Opens for Residents
It’s the end of an era, but the beginning of another. The last high-rise to be built in South of Fifth due to zoning restrictions is now open to residents. Miami-based development firm Terra has officially completed construction of its newest luxury development, GLASS, an 18-story boutique condo…
Downtown Miami Real Estate in 60 seconds
The latest results from the Miami Downtown Development Authority‘s ongoing residential market research are in and the findings may spell good news for renters. A new report surveying development in and around Miami’s urban core found that nearly 90 percent of the new residential units…
Retail Meets Warehouse: The Omni-Channel Effect
The transformation of retail business models in the age of e-tailing also forces transformation of retail and warehouse space demands. Allocation of existing retail space as well as acquisition of new space is profoundly affected by today’s omni-channel retail business models…
Commercial Real Estate National News Roundup for November 9, 2015
Parking garage at Qwest Tower, Denver. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
What might parking garages mean in a self-driving car world?, a whopping $700K in direct marketing, and what to do when things go wrong in the deal pipeline. It’s all here in the Commercial Real Estate News Roundup…
Commercial Real Estate National News Roundup for Nov. 2, 2015
A whole different kind of treehouse, Chinese mall boom might be hot air, Denver’s latest business success needs more space, and matzo-making building may crumble under a new plan. It’s all here in the Commercial Real Estate News Roundup for November 2, 2015. Office. Milwaukee Post…
All Aboard Florida To Spend $320M On CRE Developments
All Aboard Florida plans to spend $320 million on the development of largely commercial real estate as part of its total anticipated expenditure of $2.4 billion for its passenger train service. There will be offices, retail, entertainment venues and residential properties developed along the track. …
South Florida Isn’t In Latin America – But It’s The Best Place For Doing Business There
The business magazine America Economia ranked South Florida first for infrastructure, regional platform for global business, corporate executive safety, corporate executive prestige, green city standards and best in executive salary to cost of living ratio.
Commercial Projects In West Miami-Dade Rejected
Reworking the county’s master-development plan, commissioners voted down changes that would have allowed about 10 acres of pasture land to become a shopping center and rejected a proposal for Green City, an 860-acre residential and commercial development .
TIAA-CREF And Allianz Create Joint Venture Investment In Miami’s Waterford At Blue Lagoon
Six class-A office buildings totaling over 1.4 million square feet, two parcels of land totaling over 26 acres, and a new office development are included in the transaction.
Miami International Airport To Be Named IATA’s First Pharmaceuticals Freight Hub In The U.S.
Declared the first pharmaceuticals freight hub in the U.S. and second-ever in the world, MIA will keep its altitude among the top airports for cargo traffic.
Firm Inks 64-Month, 15,000 SF Lease Deal For Sign Supply Company
NAI Miami’s Timothy Merriman, Jr. negotiated the lease deal valued at over $700,000.
North Miami Beach Land Sells For $14.9 million
A recent decision by the city of North Miami Beach to create denser, mixed-use zoning districts to spur redevelopment along the boulevard has led to several properties changing hands.
French investors enter downtown Miami market with $9M purchase
A joint venture between Immocorp Capital and the Wynwood Fund on Thursday closed on the Dade-Commonwealth Building in downtown Miami for $9.2 million, or $212 per square foot. Gilbert Benhamou, of Immocorp Capital, and Matthieu Merchadou Melki, of Wynwood…
Preservation board denies protection to Bal Harbour church
After a contentious hearing that lasted more than three hours, the Miami-Dade County historic preservation board on Thursday voted 6-3 against protecting Bal Harbour’s Church…
Miami Dade College’s downtown site: bidding may be slim
FThe Related Group is teaming up with Arquitectonica on a proposal for Miami Dade College’s Biscayne Boulevard mixed-use project, to compete with the unsolicited bid from a partnership of Gary Nader…
Proposed changes to Miami 21 cause real estate uproar
A new amendment to the Miami 21 zoning code that could heavily affect small lot owners is headed for a final city commission vote Thursday, much to the surprise of some real estate brokers and developers. The proposal, which already passed a first reading in …
Fed sounding more likely to raise rates in December
From the New York website: The Federal Reserve is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate in December, judging from the central bank’s official minutes from its October policy meeting released Wednesday. While most Fed officials believe the economy will be ready for…
Lincoln Road Bulk Condos Hit Market
“There is limited available opportunities to invest in properties on high-street corridors as iconic as Lincoln Road…”
1920s Wynwood Complex Sees 57% ROI in Sale
“With this project, the property attracted considerable interest which resulted in a competitive tendering process.”
Terra Wraps Last SoFi Residential Development
“Sophisticated design and planning can transform entire neighborhoods, and we’re seeing this trend unfold in South Florida.”
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