Jan 18, 2023 - 0 Comments - Analysis -

Chart: Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Price Index Moves, Calculated Standard Deviation, Empirical Rule Observations Utilizing FRED Data

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023. The data set utilized for this chart is posted below.

Having a published data set allows for calculation of the standard deviation of these returns, noted above as 2.55%. Since these are quarterly, one would divide that by the square root of 4 to arrive at the annualized standard deviation of 5.1%. The quarterly return of 1.06% would be annualized by compounding the return to arrive at an annualized rate of 4.30%, with the compounding adding just a bit more return than if multiplied by 4.

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Summary Calculations

Average Quarterly Change 1.06%
Annualized Change 4.30%
Quarterly Standard Deviation 2.55%
Annualized SD 5.10%

These changes are for the price index only, whereas owners of commercial real estate generally earn income. That rate varies over time, and there is no such corresponding data set over time of which I am aware.  For approximation purposes, however, we’ll assume a 5% capitalization rate for all periods in order to run some empirical rule calculations.

“Risk means more things can happen than will happen.”

~ Elroy Dimson

Empirical Rule Calculations

Price Change Total Return
Annualized Change 4.30% 4.30%
Assumed Cap Rate n/a 5.00%
Average Total Return n/a 9.30%
68% of the time (1 SD) -0.80% to 9.39% 4.20% to 14.39%
95% of the time (2 SD) -5.89% to 14.49% -0.89% to 19.49%
99.7% of the time (3 SD) -10.99% to 19.58% -5.99% to 24.58%

Going by this set of data, it would appear the only about once every 666 years would the total return be worse than -10.99% (1 / [1-99.7%] x 50%). That sounds pretty good, but it also doesn’t seem quite right. Allow me to consider some potential faults with this.

First, I have no idea what goes into this index. It is an index of the Fed. One can assume it is highly diversified, as very few investors are. If you are loaded up on retail properties in Wynwood, what happens nationally is only minimally applicable. Additionally, many investors carry debt, and debt magnifies returns. Finally, this does not feel right. I think the standard deviation feels a bit higher than 5.1%. In prior post, Applying the Black & Scholes Option Pricing Model to Commercial Real Estate Option Pricing, I gave a set of reasons for assuming standard deviation as 6.5%. I still feel more comfortable with that level, frankly. What this Fed data has done for me is to get more comfortable that 6.5% itself is not substantially low, and might even be a touch high. Thank you, FRED.

A final note I’d make about this is that an investor, before allowing this to provide comfort regarding assumed risk, should look at the -30.22% index price move for the year of 2009. That more than 3 SD move deviates considerably from the rest of the dataset. That begs the question of whether that is a black swan type event, i.e. an aberration, if there is something amiss with that 2009 price index data, or if there is something about this 1952 to 2022 period that, aside from 2009, was preternaturally steady for commercial real estate prices (or some combination thereof).  My conclusion is that Yogi Berra had it right long ago when he quipped; “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Level Data:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023.

Period Index Level Quarterly Change
Q1 1952 20251
Q2 1952 20187 -0.32%
Q3 1952 20137 -0.25%
Q4 1952 20187 0.25%
Q1 1953 20238 0.25%
Q2 1953 20529 1.44%
Q3 1953 20807 1.35%
Q4 1953 20769 -0.18%
Q1 1954 20478 -1.40%
Q2 1954 20276 -0.99%
Q3 1954 20276 0.00%
Q4 1954 20301 0.12%
Q1 1955 20352 0.25%
Q2 1955 20529 0.87%
Q3 1955 20807 1.35%
Q4 1955 21275 2.25%
Q1 1956 22224 4.46%
Q2 1956 22148 -0.34%
Q3 1956 22742 2.68%
Q4 1956 22957 0.95%
Q1 1957 23185 0.99%
Q2 1957 23489 1.31%
Q3 1957 23640 0.64%
Q4 1957 23628 -0.05%
Q1 1958 23071 -2.36%
Q2 1958 23223 0.66%
Q3 1958 23312 0.38%
Q4 1958 23375 0.27%
Q1 1959 23223 -0.65%
Q2 1959 23362 0.60%
Q3 1959 23451 0.38%
Q4 1959 23463 0.05%
Q1 1960 23552 0.38%
Q2 1960 23413 -0.59%
Q3 1960 23299 -0.49%
Q4 1960 23135 -0.70%
Q1 1961 23135 0.00%
Q2 1961 23185 0.22%
Q3 1961 23210 0.11%
Q4 1961 23299 0.38%
Q1 1962 23337 0.16%
Q2 1962 23425 0.38%
Q3 1962 23387 -0.16%
Q4 1962 23463 0.32%
Q1 1963 23539 0.32%
Q2 1963 23590 0.22%
Q3 1963 23653 0.27%
Q4 1963 23678 0.11%
Q1 1964 23653 -0.11%
Q2 1964 23906 1.07%
Q3 1964 23944 0.16%
Q4 1964 24323 1.58%
Q1 1965 24361 0.16%
Q2 1965 24539 0.73%
Q3 1965 24602 0.26%
Q4 1965 25095 2.00%
Q1 1966 25019 -0.30%
Q2 1966 25576 2.23%
Q3 1966 25614 0.15%
Q4 1966 25943 1.28%
Q1 1967 26056 0.44%
Q2 1967 26196 0.54%
Q3 1967 26373 0.68%
Q4 1967 26739 1.39%
Q1 1968 27106 1.37%
Q2 1968 27460 1.31%
Q3 1968 27688 0.83%
Q4 1968 28384 2.51%
Q1 1969 28788 1.42%
Q2 1969 29256 1.63%
Q3 1969 29649 1.34%
Q4 1969 30218 1.92%
Q1 1970 30521 1.00%
Q2 1970 31470 3.11%
Q3 1970 31559 0.28%
Q4 1970 32065 1.60%
Q1 1971 32748 2.13%
Q2 1971 33494 2.28%
Q3 1971 34227 2.19%
Q4 1971 34835 1.78%
Q1 1972 35518 1.96%
Q2 1972 35960 1.24%
Q3 1972 36454 1.37%
Q4 1972 37162 1.94%
Q1 1973 37706 1.46%
Q2 1973 38515 2.15%
Q3 1973 39578 2.76%
Q4 1973 40552 2.46%
Q1 1974 41627 2.65%
Q2 1974 43436 4.35%
Q3 1974 45447 4.63%
Q4 1974 47357 4.20%
Q1 1975 48736 2.91%
Q2 1975 49621 1.82%
Q3 1975 50038 0.84%
Q4 1975 50633 1.19%
Q1 1976 50924 0.57%
Q2 1976 51847 1.81%
Q3 1976 52606 1.46%
Q4 1976 53352 1.42%
Q1 1977 55009 3.11%
Q2 1977 56009 1.82%
Q3 1977 57261 2.24%
Q4 1977 58450 2.08%
Q1 1978 59715 2.16%
Q2 1978 61384 2.79%
Q3 1978 62915 2.49%
Q4 1978 64635 2.73%
Q1 1979 66456 2.82%
Q2 1979 68468 3.03%
Q3 1979 70593 3.10%
Q4 1979 72098 2.13%
Q1 1980 73350 1.74%
Q2 1980 74855 2.05%
Q3 1980 76436 2.11%
Q4 1980 78802 3.10%
Q1 1981 82255 4.38%
Q2 1981 85139 3.51%
Q3 1981 87580 2.87%
Q4 1981 90628 3.48%
Q1 1982 92563 2.14%
Q2 1982 93512 1.03%
Q3 1982 93778 0.28%
Q4 1982 93322 -0.49%
Q1 1983 91703 -1.73%
Q2 1983 90742 -1.05%
Q3 1983 90527 -0.24%
Q4 1983 90388 -0.15%
Q1 1984 90502 0.13%
Q2 1984 91400 0.99%
Q3 1984 91969 0.62%
Q4 1984 92513 0.59%
Q1 1985 93196 0.74%
Q2 1985 93423 0.24%
Q3 1985 93917 0.53%
Q4 1985 92263 -1.76%
Q1 1986 94072 1.96%
Q2 1986 95917 1.96%
Q3 1986 97275 1.42%
Q4 1986 98651 1.41%
Q1 1987 100624 2.00%
Q2 1987 102637 2.00%
Q3 1987 103197 0.55%
Q4 1987 103761 0.55%
Q1 1988 104925 1.12%
Q2 1988 106102 1.12%
Q3 1988 106366 0.25%
Q4 1988 106630 0.25%
Q1 1989 107602 0.91%
Q2 1989 108583 0.91%
Q3 1989 108981 0.37%
Q4 1989 109380 0.37%
Q1 1990 108414 -0.88%
Q2 1990 107456 -0.88%
Q3 1990 107014 -0.41%
Q4 1990 106574 -0.41%
Q1 1991 105565 -0.95%
Q2 1991 104565 -0.95%
Q3 1991 101038 -3.37%
Q4 1991 97629 -3.37%
Q1 1992 95396 -2.29%
Q2 1992 93214 -2.29%
Q3 1992 90705 -2.69%
Q4 1992 88264 -2.69%
Q1 1993 87385 -1.00%
Q2 1993 86514 -1.00%
Q3 1993 86432 -0.09%
Q4 1993 86351 -0.09%
Q1 1994 87355 1.16%
Q2 1994 88371 1.16%
Q3 1994 89332 1.09%
Q4 1994 90361 1.15%
Q1 1995 90609 0.27%
Q2 1995 90517 -0.10%
Q3 1995 91234 0.79%
Q4 1995 92103 0.95%
Q1 1996 92508 0.44%
Q2 1996 92706 0.21%
Q3 1996 92062 -0.69%
Q4 1996 97578 5.99%
Q1 1997 105208 7.82%
Q2 1997 105076 -0.13%
Q3 1997 108845 3.59%
Q4 1997 118284 8.67%
Q1 1998 120779 2.11%
Q2 1998 125194 3.66%
Q3 1998 126035 0.67%
Q4 1998 128231 1.74%
Q1 1999 124173 -3.16%
Q2 1999 124148 -0.02%
Q3 1999 129608 4.40%
Q4 1999 131754 1.66%
Q1 2000 124986 -5.14%
Q2 2000 134097 7.29%
Q3 2000 143235 6.81%
Q4 2000 145523 1.60%
Q1 2001 144348 -0.81%
Q2 2001 144419 0.05%
Q3 2001 146031 1.12%
Q4 2001 138637 -5.06%
Q1 2002 142534 2.81%
Q2 2002 141553 -0.69%
Q3 2002 143702 1.52%
Q4 2002 149685 4.16%
Q1 2003 155085 3.61%
Q2 2003 153646 -0.93%
Q3 2003 149486 -2.71%
Q4 2003 151562 1.39%
Q1 2004 160823 6.11%
Q2 2004 168963 5.06%
Q3 2004 180109 6.60%
Q4 2004 179950 -0.09%
Q1 2005 185359 3.01%
Q2 2005 188982 1.95%
Q3 2005 197615 4.57%
Q4 2005 204345 3.41%
Q1 2006 210633 3.08%
Q2 2006 219424 4.17%
Q3 2006 224992 2.54%
Q4 2006 229588 2.04%
Q1 2007 236791 3.14%
Q2 2007 246337 4.03%
Q3 2007 251033 1.91%
Q4 2007 249708 -0.53%
Q1 2008 229637 -8.04%
Q2 2008 233844 1.83%
Q3 2008 227650 -2.65%
Q4 2008 221291 -2.79%
Q1 2009 208222 -5.91%
Q2 2009 170622 -18.06%
Q3 2009 165721 -2.87%
Q4 2009 154418 -6.82%
Q1 2010 159893 3.55%
Q2 2010 172414 7.83%
Q3 2010 170781 -0.95%
Q4 2010 171868 0.64%
Q1 2011 178250 3.71%
Q2 2011 174805 -1.93%
Q3 2011 172509 -1.31%
Q4 2011 182451 5.76%
Q1 2012 182977 0.29%
Q2 2012 182262 -0.39%
Q3 2012 185364 1.70%
Q4 2012 188270 1.57%
Q1 2013 191017 1.46%
Q2 2013 202087 5.80%
Q3 2013 213128 5.46%
Q4 2013 212451 -0.32%
Q1 2014 209591 -1.35%
Q2 2014 219049 4.51%
Q3 2014 223174 1.88%
Q4 2014 230717 3.38%
Q1 2015 241231 4.56%
Q2 2015 246152 2.04%
Q3 2015 246392 0.10%
Q4 2015 244138 -0.91%
Q1 2016 239814 -1.77%
Q2 2016 248433 3.59%
Q3 2016 256867 3.39%
Q4 2016 257315 0.17%
Q1 2017 252540 -1.86%
Q2 2017 266115 5.38%
Q3 2017 268458 0.88%
Q4 2017 272567 1.53%
Q1 2018 274951 0.87%
Q2 2018 275509 0.20%
Q3 2018 276359 0.31%
Q4 2018 272775 -1.30%
Q1 2019 285385 4.62%
Q2 2019 299015 4.78%
Q3 2019 296344 -0.89%
Q4 2019 294000 -0.79%
Q1 2020 298895 1.66%
Q2 2020 295352 -1.19%
Q3 2020 300713 1.82%
Q4 2020 312942 4.07%
Q1 2021 314009 0.34%
Q2 2021 322439 2.68%
Q3 2021 345789 7.24%
Q4 2021 358385 3.64%
Q1 2022 349813 -2.39%
Q2 2022 348985 -0.24%
Q3 2022 358378 2.69%

~

Don’t rely on this in any way to make investment decisions. These are just observations, and may be incorrect. On that note, if you find an error in the calculations, logic, or assumptions, contact me and let me know!