A Speculative Analysis of the Purchase of Plaza 8 Shopping Center at 9600 SW 8th Street


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NOI Speculation

Costar reports that The Plaza 8 shopping center, located at 9600 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL, 33174, sold for $$11,186,604.  Our data, sourced from Miami-Dade, shows this property as 56,493 adjusted square feet on a 106,350 square feet lot, while Costar indicates 53,428 of gross leaseable area.  The average lease rate for the last 4 leases in Costar is $22.50 NNN.  Costar further reports the building as 87.1% occupied.  The sales price equates to $214.31 per gross leasable square foot.plaza_8_noi_guessIn the accompanying “Guessing at NOI for The Plaza 8 Shopping Center,” we speculate at to how an investor might evaluate this property financially.  We assume an average rental rate of $22.50 psf,  NNN (triple-net), in line with the aforementioned average for recent leases which are conveniently and appropriately split between 1st and 2nd level properties.  Expenses are assumed at $10.00 psf.  This is a rough guess, but note that not getting expenses exactly right – at least when vacancy is moderate, – has a muted effect with a NNN assumption as expenses are reimbursed by tenants for occupied space.  Thus, expenses only affect income to the extent that they are not fully reimbursed due to vacancy. Speaking of vacancy, we assume that at 15%.  We are assuming this a touch higher than what Costar currently indicates to account for potential collection issues and the prospect for vacancy as rates are increased from what we guess may be long-term legacy leases .  Finally, gross leasable area is assumed to be 53,482 sf as indicated by Costar.

The assumptions result in  arrives at net operating income of $844,162, indicating a 7.5% cap rate (capitalization rate), higher than average for retail properties in Miami-Dade county, but seemingly about in line for this kind of property.  For a commercial property investor, however, the cap rate is just the start.

Potential Internal Rate of Return

 

Speculating on the Potential IRR for the 9600 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL 33174 Buyer

Speculating on the Potential IRR for the Plaza 8 Shopping Center Buyer

 

In the accompanying and entirely speculative IRR (internal rate of return) calculation, we speculate at to what a buyer’s return might be, pre-tax and after tax, given various rent growth assumptions and a set of other various assumptions including 60% debt financing, the same cap rate upon sale after 7 years, etc.  As can be seen, the mid-point rent growth assumption of 2% provides more than a 17% pre-tax equivalent internal rate of return, not bad indeed in today’s low interest rate environment.  It should be noted that this return is not without risk.  History is replete with failed commercial real estate investors, particularly in South Florida, and success at such requires time and the ability to tie up capital in a non-liquid investment.  The potential, however, can be aptly rewarding for those willing to assume the risk and suffer the lack of liquidity.

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The Largest Commercial (Improved) Property Sales in the Prior Year

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Where an address is linked above, click through for information about the property including recent sales prices and dates, ownership information, and access to sales comps, tax records, and zip code information including demographics and other properties in the same zip code.

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November 18, 2016

Commercial Property in Zip Code 33173: Year’s Top Buyers, Sellers, Ten Year Sales Volume

Ten Year Sales Volume for Commercial Properties Within Miami-Dade / Miami Area / South Florida Zip Code 33173 as of November 18, 2016 | Chart Courtesy of Costar

Ten Year Sales Volume for Commercial Properties Within Miami-Dade / Miami Area / South Florida Zip Code 33173 as of November 18, 2016 | Chart Courtesy of Costar

For commercial property of all types in Miami’s zip code 33173,  the top buyers as listed by Costar on November 18, 2016 included: Acumen Real Estate; Equity One, Inc.; CF Properties Corp; IMC Equity Group; Luis Malo; CVS Health; Miami-Dade Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Dept; Jose Munoz; Equity One Florida Portfolio, Inc.; Chaptal.  The total purchase volume of buyers for these types of properties over the past 10 years has ranged from a couple million dollars or so to as much as $40 million.

The top sellers of such properties included: Sunset Gardens Rental Apartments LC; Loeb Realty; Galloway Development Group, LLC; Breakers Capital Partners; First Washington Realty, Inc.; Equity One, Inc.; The Haven Center Inc.; Medical Park Diagnostic Center; Henry Jr. & Nancy W. Tellam; Elmer E & Nancy J Webb.

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This was compiled using data from the CoStar Group, which provides in depth analytics for the commercial real estate industry, and the Miami-Dade MLS.

Also see:

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Difference in Pricing of Class A, B, and C Office Leases in Miami-Dade County

Ten Year Chart Comparing Gross Asking Rent for Class A, B, and C Office Properties in Miami-Dade County Chart Courtesy of Costar as of 11/11/16

Ten Year Chart Comparing Gross Asking Rent for Class A (yellow), B (maroon), and C (purple) Office Properties in Miami-Dade County Chart Courtesy of Costar as of 11/11/16

Having recently run into a situation where a Miami office building seemed to be classified lower than it actually is, we wondered what the financial impact of this, in rental rates, might be.  To get a feel for this, we evaluated average asking gross asking rent per square foot for office properties in Miami-Dade county by class, looking at A, B, and C class properties.

The charts herein show the results of all three.  Looking at only the most recent prices, one can see that the average for class A is approximately $41.80, for class B is about $28.80, and for class C is about 25.75.  Given this, one could conclude that class B garners 11% more in rent than class C, and class A garners 45% more than class C.

This may be understated, however, given the data source.  Class A properties are almost always quoted on a triple-net (NNN) basis, as are some class B properties.  We believe that the “gross rent” used in this data source would include any NNN expense, but also believe that in some cases the NNN expense has not been entered, thus registering as zero.  As one comes into class B properties that are NNN, this is likely more common, as the properties tend to be less high profile.  Thus, the gross rent may be understated as the class improves.  In any case, we know there is a difference, and this quick analysis provides some measure of what that is in the Miami area.

A similar effect would be anticipated in valuation.  The effect may be even more pronounced, actually, as higher quality properties tend to trade at lower capitalization rates (higher prices in relation to net operating income), which would further increase the spread in valuation versus that in rental rates.

Also see current sales and leasing trends charts for office properties in Coral Gables, Doral, Hialeah, Homestead, Miami, Miami Beach, Miami Lakes, Miami Springs, North Miami, North Miami Beach, and Pinecrest.

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November 16, 2016

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November 15, 2016

Commercial Property in Zip Code 33186: Year’s Top Buyers, Sellers, Ten Year Sales Volume

Ten Year Sales Volume for Commercial Properties Within Miami-Dade / Miami Area / South Florida Zip Code 33186 as of November 14, 2016 | Chart Courtesy of Costar

Ten Year Sales Volume for Commercial Properties Within Miami-Dade / Miami Area / South Florida Zip Code 33186 as of November 14, 2016 | Chart Courtesy of Costar

For commercial property of all types in Miami’s zip code 33186,  the top buyers as listed by Costar on November 14, 2016 included: Starwood Capital Group, Deutsche Bank AG; Grand Peaks Properties; Woolbright Development, Inc.; Lowe’s Companies, Inc.; Dade Jeep Chrysler Dodge Inc.; The Simon Konover Company; Leon Medical Centers; Costco Wholesale Corporation; Universal Properties Management USA.  The total purchase volume of buyers for these types of properties over the past 10 years has ranged from  a ten million dollars or so to around $160 million.

The top sellers of such properties included: Equity Residential; Woolright Development Inc.; Forest City Enterprises, Inc.; 40 Acre Farm Limited Partnership; Costco Wholesale Corporation; Chrysler Realty Company, LLC; Emerald Real Estate; Florida Northeastern Development Corporation; Century Homebuilders Group LLC; Rising Tide Development, LLC.

Some of the larger sales within zip code 33186 that were booked in the Miami-Dade MLS over the prior couple of years were 12400 128th Street, 11980 144th Court, 12309 131 Avenue, and 14380 139th Court.

This was compiled using data from the CoStar Group, which provides in depth analytics for the commercial real estate industry.

Also see:

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November 14, 2016

Miami Commercial Property News November 10, 2016: What Trump’s Presidency Will Mean for Miami Commercial Real Estate; More…

Financing set to bring Tri-Rail trains into MiamiCentral Station

The last piece of the financing puzzle to bring Tri-Rail trains into MiamiCentral Station next year fell into place Oct. 31 when directors of the Southeast Overtown/Park West Community Redevelopment Agency agreed to fund $17.5 million of the project.  The agency had previously pledged that amount…

Public CRE markets welcome Trump win – with some exceptions

From the New York website: And then, global stock and bond markets proved all who predicted a Trump victory would lead to immediate financial turmoil wrong.  The S&P 500 stock index and 10-year treasury yields both rose over the course of Wednesday, indicating that markets weren’t too spooked…

Trump’s handpicked EPA transition team leader is bad news for Miami—and the planet

Whether you voted for Donald Trump or not, there’s one element that’s now all but a certainty: His presidency does not bode well in the planet’s war against Climate Change, especially in Miami, where we’re already seeing debilitating effects from rising sea levels.  Trump’s choice to lead his EPA transition team is Myron Ebell, noted Scientific American in September. This is not good, especially…

Galbut clears one hurdle in quest for revised project at South Shore Hospital site

The site at 500 Alton Road and Russell Galbut: Over the objections of one of their colleagues, the Miami Beach City Commission voted 5-1 to allow developer Russell Galbut to seek approval from the city’s land use boards for revised development plans for the former South Shore Hospital site on Alton…

Paraiso Bay Has Topped Off In Edgewater (Photos)

The Related Group’s Paraiso Bay has topped off.  Work on a parking podium is also underway, as can be seen in one picture on this page.  In one photo, Paraiso Bay views are in the foreground.

Miami real estate players welcome Trump presidency

Dan Kodsi, Shahab Karmely, Don Peebles and Jules Trump are pictured with Donald Trump in the background.  As South Florida dealt with the stunning results of the presidential election, Miami’s real estate industry looked toward the future, mostly with optimism. For developers and brokers, a Donald Trump presidency…

Cornerstone Group Proposes Platform 3750 On US-1 In Coconut Grove

Platform 3750 LLC, an affiliate of Cornerstone Group of Hollywood, is proposing an eight-story project called Platform 3750.  The proposal calls for: 192 apartments; 30,070 square feet of office; 20,200 square feet of retail; 403 parking spaces.  The project site is 3750 South Dixie Highway.  Kobi Karp is the architect.  Miami’s UDRB is scheduled to review the plans on November 16.

Q&A with Hank Klein: Miami CRE exec turns to photography following devastating stroke

Hank Klein is shown with photos from his book.  Hank Klein, vice chairman of Blanca Commercial Real Estate in Miami and a leading figure in South Florida’s commercial real estate sector for more than three decades, recently published a book entitled “Miami, Real and Imagined,” a collection of…

The Top Commercial Real Estate Due Diligence Mistakes

Avoid these due diligence don’ts while navigating commercial real estate investment.  When it comes to securing a commercial real estate deal, the due diligence process sometimes takes a backseat to seemingly more important factors, such as raising money and negotiating the deal. Because of the…

Maturing Loans On Shaky Ground

The clock is ticking for a cluster of troubled pre-financial crisis loans imperiled by shaky shopping centers and half-empty office parks. The post Maturing Loans On Shaky Ground appeared first on SVN South Commercial Real Estate Advisors.

Trump’s election not a shakeup for South Florida’s real estate market, experts say

Donald J. Trump’s election as the next president of the United States could shakeup much of the political establishment, as the Republican as promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington, but it’s not expected to cause a shakeup in South Florida’s real estate market, experts say. Some experts believe the billionaire real estate developer could be a positive for the local real estate economy over the long term.

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November 10, 2016