Miami Commercial Real Estate News February 8, 2023: Hilton MIA Blue Lagoon Hilton Trades for $118M; Chicago Developer Led JV Snags Miami Station TOD Dev Site; More…

John Buck JV Acquires Miami Site for TOD Project

Miami Station. Image courtesy of Berkadia The John Buck Co., in a joint venture with Florida Value Partners, BH Group and PEBB Enterprises, has acquired a 1-acre site in downtown Miami for $39.5 million. The Chicago-based developer intends to build a mixed-use tower, dubbed Miami Station. Berkadia represented the seller, a partnership between BH Group and…

Brookfield Resort In South Florida Changes Hands In Record-Breaking Joint Venture Deal

A South Florida resort is expected to be sold to a pair of investors for $835M, marking one of the largest hotel acquisitions in the U.S. since August 2021. Real estate funds managed by Credit Suisse Asset Management and Trinity Fund Advisors have formed a joint venture to buy The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood, Florida, from Brookfield Asset Management, according…

FAA Approves Height Of Mixed-Use Project At 3333 Biscayne

The FAA has just issued approval for the height of a project proposed at 3333 Biscayne. The approval letter was sent to Miami Edgewater JV LLC with a Denver Colorado address on February 6. A structure height of 481 feet above ground was approved, with a total height above sea level of 491 feet. The 3-tower mixed-use project had a hearing before Miami’s Urban…

Remains Of 7,000-Year-Old Civilization Found At Related Group Site Along Miami River

A groundbreaking archaeological discovery at a massive project site on the Miami River from one of Miami’s most prominent developers has kicked off a debate about how to properly preserve the city’s history amid a historic economic boom. Archaeologists have uncovered remains of a civilization that dates back 7,000 years on the south bank of the Miami River and west…

Site Work Underway At 308-Unit Wynhouse After Permit Issued

Construction activity has now begun at the site of yet another major Wynwood project. The Wynhouse is planned to include 308 residential units, 24,114 square feet of ground floor commercial space, and 107 parking spaces, along with a public paseo. Photos from the site last week by Ryan RC Rea shows site work activity now underway. Records show that a site work…

Bentley Residences To Begin Construction In Spring: New Renderings

Bentley Residences is now just months away from starting construction, according to CNN. Groundbreaking on the 63-story tower will take place in spring of this year, the report said. Completion is expected in 2026. Bentley Residences will become the tallest tallest US oceanfront building at 749 feet tall, CNN said, citing a spokesperson (at least one other tower is planned…

Berkadia Arranges $39.5M Land Sale in Miami, Buyer Plans Mixed-Use Tower

Berkadia has arranged the $39.5 million sale of a one-acre, opportunity zone-designated site at 533 N.W. 2nd Ave in Miami, across from the Miami Central Brightline station. The buyer, Chicago-based The John Buck Co., is making its entry into the South Florida market with this land acquisition. The company is leading a joint venture partnership with Florida Value Partners…

John Buck JV Buys Site for Miami Tower

Miami Station. Rendering courtesy of Berkadia The John Buck Co., Florida Value Partners, BH Group and PEBB Enterprises have jointly acquired the 1-acre development site of Miami Station, a mixed-use project to rise in downtown Miami. Berkadia arranged the $39.5 million transaction on behalf of the previous owner, a joint venture… investor Rainer Viete…

Archeologists at Related’s Baccarat project site uncover artifacts dating back thousands of years

Archaeologists discovered thousands of tools, artifacts, and human and animal remains dating back 7,000 years at the Related Group’s Miami River construction site, where the development firm plans a three-tower project. The 16-month excavation and preservation of the items could be the most archaeologically significant findings near the mouth of the river in the past 25 years…

2 More Business Service Firms Expanding To Miami

The number of companies looking to participate in the Miami business boom is growing again, as two more service firms announced new offices in the Magic City this week. Omni Bridgeway, an Australian litigation financing firm, said on Tuesday that it is expanding into the Miami market, hiring Lauren Alexander from Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP as an investment manager…

Philippe Chow returns to South Beach after decade-long hiatus

Philippe by Philippe Chow is making a South Beach comeback after agreeing to rent a commercial unit at One Ocean condominium. The celebrity restaurant brand’s owner, Merchants Hospitality, led by Abraham Merchant and Richard Cohn, signed a 15-year lease for the ground-floor space in the boutique condo building at 1 Collins Avenue, according to a press release.

Venetian Causeway replacements of 11 bridges advance

Replacement of 11 of the 12 historic Venetian Causeway bridges linking Miami and Miami Beach has won federal and state go-ahead for the next phase of plans to be finished well after the causeway turns 100 years old. A Florida Department of Transportation memo last week said the state and the Federal Highway Administration had accepted the location and design concept…

Edgewater’s 60-Story Hamilton House Quickly Moves To Permitting Phase

In Edgewater, the 60-story Hamilton House is now rapidly advancing, with multiple construction and demolition permits recently filed. The main construction permit for the tower was applied for on December 22, with the full plans submitted on January 23 and now in active review. The permit states the apartment building will rise 60 stories or 649 feet, with 241 residential…

Developers Buy Miami Station Site ‘Shovel Ready’ With Approvals For 42-Story Tower

The Miami Station development site has just been purchased by a partnership of developers. Chicago-based developer The John Buck Company – Florida Value Partners, and BH Group with PEBB Enterprises paid $39.5 million for the 1.03-acre site, or $800 per square foot, according to a press release. This is the first Miami property for The John Buck Company, which has…

USPS Data Shows Miami Was #1 For Growth From 2019 To 2022

There is yet another new data point showing Miami’s rapid growth since the pandemic, this time from the United States Postal Service. The National Association of Realtors analyzed USPS 2022 change-of-address data last month for the study. According to the analysis, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA has seen a 56.2% increase in inbound moves from 2019 to 2022.

Demolition Underway At Brickell’s Starlite Motel, Where Chicago Company Plans 300 Apartments

Demolition began this morning at Brickell’s Starlite Motel, new photos by Phillip Pessar show. In November 2022, Chicago-based Focus paid $28 million for the property. A demolition permit was issued the same month. Focus is planning 300 apartments on the property. It isn’t clear if plans have been filed yet with planners. The Starlite Motel had 60 units, according to…

MCR Acquires Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon Hotel for $118M

New York-based hotel owner-operator MCR has acquired the Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon, a 508-room hotel in Miami. The seller and sales price were not disclosed, but the South Florida Business Journal reports that Park Hotels & Resorts sold the 14-story hotel to MCR for $118 million. Set within the Blue Lagoon business park, the waterfront hotel is located south…

This Week’s South Florida Deal Sheet

It was a big week for hotel deals in South Florida as nearly $1B changed hands in hospitality trades. Hospitality giant MCR has acquired the Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon from Virginia-based hotel REIT Park Hotels & Resorts, it announced last week. MCR spent $118.3M for the 508-room property at 5101 Blue Lagoon Drive, which works out to roughly $233K per key…

South Florida Retail Real Estate Summary: Leases, Sales & Construction Projects

Market Snapshot for South Florida Retail Real Estate Here’s our quarterly summary South Florida commercial real estate focusing on Miami retail real estate. The report includes statistical highlights (cap rates, vacancy rates, absorption, etc), the latest retail transactions, signed leases, retail trends, and current market activity. The retail real estate report…

Rilea plans more Mohawk at Wynwood loft apartments after expanding site

Rilea Group plans more loft apartments at its Mohawk at Wynwood mixed-use project after expanding its site, The Real Deal has learned The Miami-based developer paid $5.7 million for two warehouses at 31 and 37 Northeast 28th Street, said Rilea President Diego Ojeda. Both lots span 12,750 square feet, enlarging the overall development site at 56 Northeast 29th Street from…

‘Improved’ Tri-Rail gains 30% in ridership

Tri-Rail ridership in January increased 30% over January 2022, the South Florida Regional Transportation Authority (SFRTA) reported last week. Miami-Dade Tri-Rail trains averaged over 12,000 weekday riders last month, close to 3,000 (30%) more riders than January 2022. Weekend ridership also rose 30%, averaging more than 6,000 riders. “Between passengers that…”

Jungle Island hotel, garage plans march ahead

Plans for a hotel and new parking garage at Jungle Island are moving ahead, reports the developer, despite a city review board’s denial in December. In an email response to Miami Today, ESJ Capital Partners’ chief of staff Micha Dubernard said Tuesday that ESJ has submitted plans for the garage to the city, and the team is working on the design of what is to be a 300-room hotel.

Affordable housing advances for Miami Beach school’s grounds

An affordable housing development by Jewish Community Services on the grounds of a middle school in Miami Beach’s Washington Avenue has gained support from the City of Miami Beach and needs to continue negotiating with the Miami-Dade County Public Schools system to have the land conveyed to the county for a lease. Jewish Community Service, a social services…

County puts Baylink on track for 2029 Miami Beach runs

A 30-year, $1 billion Baylink plan to connect downtown Miami to Miami Beach by extending Metromover has replaced a $1.3 billion monorail. Now county officials are seeking Miami Beach support to move forward in a funding vote. The plan would extend Metromover to the Beach with “a seamless connection with a one-seat ride” from Government Center station…

Construction cost elevator reaches top, starts downward

Construction cost in South Florida is starting to stabilize, according to local construction developing experts. In mid-2020 construction material costs skyrocketed to a 25% increase but in the past 12 months it has decreased to around 8%, said Peter Dyga, president and CEO of Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast Chapter. Those materials included…

Dedicated pickleball complex eyed – without axes or arrows

With some good-natured chatter and at least two “but-what-abouts,” Miami-Dade commissioners Tuesday unanimously approved Commissioner Danielle Cohen Higgins’ resolution that the county mayor “examine the feasibility of creating a dedicate pickleball court complex.” Pickleball is the country’s fastest-growing sport. More than 36.5 million people played…

Plans Submitted To FAA For 587-Foot Downtown 6th

Plans have just been filed with the Federal Aviation Administration for a new tower called Downtown 6th. The filing was received by the FAA on January 26. Downtown 6th is planned to rise 574 feet above ground, or 587 feet above sea level, the filing states. The work schedule for the building is estimated to run from July 1, 2023 through December 30, 2024. Last June…

78-Story Tower At Burger King Property Across From Brickell City Centre Resubmitted To FAA

Plans for a tower to replace the Burger King-anchored strip mall across from Brickell City Centre have just been filed with the Federal Aviation Administration, again. The Federal Aviation Administration already granted approval for a tower on the property in both 2016 and 2019, but those approvals expired. According to the new filing, a tower height of 95…

22-Story 72nd & Park Around Halfway Up In North Beach

In North Beach, the shell of the under-construction 72nd & Park tower is now nearly half complete. 72nd & Park is planned to include 270 residential units, of which 121 will be micro-units, according to a school concurrency agreement recorded in September 2022. Around 12,000 square feet of retail is also planned, along with a 326-space parking garage, according…

New Filing: Edgewater ‘Condo-Style’ Luxury Multifamily Building Will Have 324 Units

An Arquitectonica-designed luxury apartment building in Edgewater is now moving through the pre-development phases, with platting documents just filed with the county. The new plat will be known as “Oak Row 2900,” according to the February 2 filing with Miami-Dade planners. Oak Row 2900 will be developed with 324 residential apartment units and 18,814 square…

Coral Rock to Build Miami Community

Card Sound Key Apartments. All renderings courtesy of Coral Rock Development Group Card Sound Key Apartments clubhouseCard Sound Key Apartments playgroundCard Sound Key Apartments workout stationCard Sound Key Apartments parkCard Sound Key Apartments dog park Coral Rock Development Group has unveiled plans for Card Sound Key Apartments…

Coral Rock to Develop 342-Unit Card Sound Key Apartments in Metro Miami

Coral Rock Development Group has unveiled plans for Card Sound Key Apartments, a 342-unit multifamily community to be developed at 35800 S. Dixie Highway in Florida City, roughly 35 miles southwest of Miami. Upon completion, the development will comprise six four-story buildings, with units in one-, two- and three-bedroom layouts. Twenty percent of the units will be…

John Buck JV buys downtown Miami dev site for $40M

Chicago developer The John Buck Company is leading a joint venture that acquired a downtown Miami development site for $39.5 million, with plans for a mixed-use project, The Real Deal has learned. The deal marks John Buck’s official entry into the South Florida market, where a slew of out-of-state developers including New York-based firms like Naftali Group and Kushne…

MCR drops $118M for Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon

MCR’s Tyler Morse, Park Hotels & Resorts’ Thomas Baltimore and the Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon at 5101 Blue Lagoon Drive (MCR, Park Hotels, Hilton) MCR dropped $118.3 million for a Hilton-branded hotel near Miami International Airport, marking the firm’s continued appetite for South Florida hospitality properties. MCR bought the Hilton Miami Airport…

Lease roundup: CP, Allen Morris, Agave score tenants

Related Fund Management, RRE Ventures, more I Two Town Center I Boca Raton CP Group signed five new tenants for spec office suites at Two Town Center in Boca Raton. Related Fund Management, a third-party investment management affiliate of Stephen Ross’ Related Companies; New York-based venture capital firm RRE Ventures; Chicago-based BMO Harris Bank…

Movers & Shakers: South Florida Real estate law practices bulk up

The past month has been busy for South Florida real estate hiring, with no slowdown in sight. Among the latest moves, two real estate legal practices in Miami added partners to their ranks, Forman Capital relaunched and Brown Harris Stevens brought in more agents. Boutique real estate legal firm Bercow Radell Fernandez Larkin & Tapanes promoted Maritza Haro Salgado….

Saltbox Opens 31,000 SF Co-Warehousing Facility in Metro Miami

Saltbox Inc., a co-warehousing and small business logistics company, has opened a new location at 1701 84th Ave. in Doral, roughly 15 miles northwest of downtown Miami. Comprising 31,000 square feet, the space features 68 flexible warehouse suites, conference rooms, flex storage, access to loading docks and a photo studio. The Doral facility is the first Saltbox in metro Miami…

Saltbox Opens Miami Co-Warehousing Facility

Saltbox Doral. Image courtesy of Saltbox Saltbox has expanded its footprint with a new co-warehousing facility in Doral, Fla. The 31,000-square-foot space marks the company’s 11th location and its entrance in the Miami market, providing flexibility for small businesses in the community. The Saltbox facility is within a 423,022-square-foot building, constructed in 1992…

Florida board proposes changes to condo reform legislation

Aerial view of South Florida along with the new report by the Florida Building Commission (Getty, Florida Building Commission) A Florida commission is proposing changes to the state law that legislators passed last year in response to the deadly Surfside condo collapse. The Florida Building Commission was asked to review inspection requirements and make recommendations…

Hialeah Gardens industrial site trades at $1M/acre, as market softens

A Hialeah Gardens industrial outdoor storage site fetched $1.2 million per acre, marking a price drop from similar properties a year ago — and a harbinger that the market is softening. Triarch Capital Group bought the property at 12601 West Okeechobee Road from Princeton, New Jersey-based Essential Properties Realty Trust, according to broker Jose Sasson. Triarch paid…

Clear vision: Ophthalmologist buys Pompano Beach office building

An eye doctor purchased a Broward County medical office building for $8.9 million. An entity managed by Dr. Shailesh Gupta, a Coral Springs-based ophthalmologist, acquired Sample Executive Center at 2001 West Sample Road in Pompano Beach, according to records and Vizzda. Gupta’s entity obtained a $6.2 million mortgage from First Citizens Bank and Trust.

Strong Demand For Apartments At Newly Opened 58-Story Downtown Miami Tower

There is strong demand for apartments at a new 58-story tower that just opened called Downtown 1st. The building has 560 new rental apartments, and opened in January at 70% pre-leased, according to a January 25 press release. By January 31, Downtown 1st was said to be 85% leased, according to Ryan RC Rea, who made a site visit. One-bedroom apartments started…

Vertical Construction Underway At 36-Story Modera Riverside

In downtown Miami, the 36-story Modera Riverside is now going vertical, according to photos by Ryan RC Rea. The project was formerly known as Nexus Riverside. It will include 428 rental apartments, 4,266 square feet of ground floor retail, and an eight story parking garage. First move-ins are planned in August 2024, according to the developer’s website. The Modera Riverside…

Signs Of Activity At One Bayfront Plaza Planned Supertall Site

There is new activity possibly related to demolition at One Bayfront Plaza, where a supertall tower is planned. On February 1, a process number was created with Miami’s Building Department for demolition work, records show. However, the application intake was still showing as incomplete as of this morning, so the exact scope of what is planned could not be ascertained.

Developer In Contract At Midtown Miami

A Miami developer appears to have a contract to purchase a piece of Midtown Miami. Midtown One Investments LLC has entered into an Agreement of Purchase and Sale as the buyer, according to a memo recorded in Miami-Dade County records on January 4. The Purchase and Sale and sale agreement was entered into on May 19, 2021, the memo says. The buying LLC…

Kroger Opens 60,000 SF Last-Mile Distribution Facility in Opa-Locka

The Kroger Co. has opened a 60,000-square-foot industrial facility in the South Florida city of Opa-Locka. Ocado Group, an e-commerce grocery delivery firm based in the United Kingdom, operates the automated facility. Situated on the north side of Miami-Dade County, the facility serves as a last-mile “spoke” facility that works in conjunction with Kroger’s 375,000-square-foot…

Xebec nabs $44M construction loan for industrial development near Miami Gardens

Xebec scored a $44 million construction loan for an industrial development near Miami Gardens. The Dallas-based firm secured financing tied to 15.7 acres of land on the northeast corner of Northwest 67th Avenue and Northwest 167th Street in unincorporated Miami-Dade County, according to records. Fifth Third Bank is the lender. The land, east of New Testament Baptist…

Here are South Florida’s top construction loans of the past year

Despite construction financing becoming tougher and more expensive to secure in major markets nationwide, South Florida developers are managing to close monster deals. The top 10 construction loans issued between January 2022 and January of this year in South Florida totaled $2 billion, according to The Real Deal’s analysis of such financing…

Trinity and Credit Suisse to buy Hollywood’s Diplomat for $850M

Trinity Investments is teaming up with Credit Suisse to acquire Hollywood’s Diplomat Beach Resort and adjacent properties for $850 million, The Real Deal has learned. The joint venture also tapped Miami-based Related Group and Aventura-based BH Group to co-develop two towers on the development sites. The deal, which would be among …

Ambrose scores $27M construction loan for warehouse project in Jupiter

Ambrose Property Group nabbed a $27 million construction loan to build a spec warehouse in Jupiter. Cincinnati-based Fifth Third National Bank provided the financing for the planned 246,000-square-foot distribution facility at 158110 Walgreens Drive, records show. Ambrose, an Indianapolis-based industrial developer led by CEO Aasif Bade, acquired the 17-acre development…

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February 8, 2023

Video: Senior VP, Research Ed Pierzak Presents 2023 Outlook for the Economy, Commercial Real Estate, and REITs

The Discussion: Navigating the 2023 Outlook for Commercial Real Estate and REITs

The commercial real estate landscape is constantly evolving, shaped by economic trends, market performance, and external factors. In a recent episode of “America’s Commercial Real Estate Show,” host Michael delved into the 2023 outlook for the economy, commercial real estate, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Joined by Ed Pierzak, Senior Vice President of Research at NARIT, the discussion covered topics ranging from recession risks to inflation, historic REIT performance, and strategies for navigating the current market uncertainties.

Recession Risks and REIT Resilience:
The conversation kicked off with the elephant in the room: recession risks in 2023. Pierzak highlighted the concerns stemming from mixed economic growth, job gains, inflation, and rising interest rates in 2022. However, he reassured listeners that REITs are well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties. Analyzing REIT operational performance and balance sheets, Pierzak emphasized their resilience, with REITs showing robust results, particularly in the third quarter of 2022.

Impact of Interest Rates on Transaction Volume:
The surge in interest rates was acknowledged as a factor impacting transaction volume and property values. While acknowledging the influence of higher interest rates on the market, Pierzak emphasized that REITs, with their low average cost of debt, remain in a favorable position. The conversation also touched on the divergence in valuations, with REITs showing solid operational performance but experiencing declines in total returns.

Inflation and its Impact on Commercial Real Estate:
The discussion turned to inflation, a current concern for many stakeholders in the commercial real estate sector. Pierzak acknowledged the challenges posed by inflation but highlighted real estate’s historical role as an inflation hedge. Using data from NARIT’s T-Tracker, he demonstrated that REITs have been able to keep up with the pace of inflation, offering a positive outlook for 2023.

Office Sector Dynamics:
The episode addressed the unique challenges faced by the office sector, particularly in the wake of remote and hybrid working trends. Pierzak noted that the future of the office sector is still uncertain, with the impacts of work-from-home and hybrid working yet to be fully understood. Bull shared insights from his experiences in dealing with office property owners and managers, anticipating a continued decline in demand with potential recovery in the years ahead.

Historic REIT Performance and Strategic Positioning:
Pierzak delved into the historic performance of REITs during past downturns, dispelling concerns about negative property total returns during recessions. He highlighted the lead-lag relationship between public and private real estate, with REITs historically outperforming during and after recessions. The conversation explored the potential opportunities for REITs in 2023, both tactically and strategically, positioning them as resilient and well-equipped to navigate uncertainties.

Conclusion:
As the episode concluded, Pierzak left the audience with a positive outlook, describing REITs as resilient in the face of uncertainties. The 2023 outlook for commercial real estate and REITs, as discussed on “America’s Commercial Real Estate Show,” emphasized the sector’s ability to adapt and thrive amid changing economic landscapes. For those seeking more detailed insights, NARIT’s 2023 Outlook report is available on their website.

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February 3, 2023

Chart: Diminished Small Business CRE Buying Power Given Higher Interest Rates

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [DGS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, January 16, 2023.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [Series DGS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; January 16, 2023.

The above chart displays the loan amount per $10,000 of monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment on a 25 year amortization schedule and assuming an interest rate 2.5% above the 10 year treasury. The actual spread varies over time and between institutions, of course.

“Money often costs too much.”

~Ralph Waldo Emerson

The idea here is to generally represent the effect on the buying power of an available income stream, either by way of a corporate budget or a debt service coverage ratio financing requirement, of changes in interest rates. Highlighted is the 28% drop from the maximum “buying power” to minimum of the last couple of years. For businesses purchasing real estate utilizing financing, this is a real effect, similar to the effect on homebuyers as interest rates change.

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February 2, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News February 1, 2023: Edgewater Project Doubles to 1,300 Units; Miami Top Coworking Market in USA; More…

Edgewater project more than doubles units to 1,300 in 42-story towers

A major mixed-use residential project already in progress has expanded and will bring another 800-plus residential units to Miami’s Edgewater neighborhood. Developer-owner 1900 Biscayne Property Owner LLC and 2000 Biscayne Fee Owner LLC recently presented their latest project to the city’s Urban Development Review Board. It includes two 42-story towers…

FAA Approval Now In Process For 750-Foot Tower Crane At E11even

Contractors building the the 65-story E11even Hotel & Residences have applied for Federal Aviation Administration approval to install a tower crane at construction site. Separately, the FAA just issued approval for the permanent height of a second tower known as E11ven Residences Beyond. The construction crane at the first tower is planned to rise 750 feet above ground…

Zoning Waiver Decision Issued At Empire Brickell, Demolition Permit Pending

Empire Brickell continues to move closer to groundbreaking. According to Miami Planning Department records, a final decision on Miami 21 zoning waivers needed for the project was issued on January 30. Building Department records show that a permit for total demolition at the site was applied for in August 2022, and was actively being worked as of last month.

Tri-Rail To Downtown Miami Now Estimated For Fall 2023

The head of the agency that runs Tri-Rail has released a new start date for train service to downtown Miami, according to Miami Today. Tri-Rail train service to MiamiCentral is now expected to begin in Fall 2023. The prediction was made at a presentation to the board of the Citizens Independent Transportation Trust. The agency is now said to be in good communication…

Coral Rock plans mixed-income rental complex in Florida City

Coral Rock Development Group’s Stephen Blumenthal, David Brown, Victor Brown and Michael Wohl with rendering of Card Sound Key Apartments (Coral Rock Development Group, Getty) Coral Rock Development Group plans a mixed-income apartment complex in Florida City, marking the firm’s continued bet on south Miami-Dade County. The 342-unit Card Sound Key…

Miami Has Become The Coworking Capital Of The World

Miami has emerged as the top coworking and flexible office market in the country, soaking up waves of corporate transplants looking for a quick foothold in buzzy South Florida. “You have companies that are calling us that are saying, ‘Hey, I’m not there now, but I know I want to expand in Miami, can I get an office?'” said Melissa Bessler, Industrious’ regional director of the Southeast…

East End sues ex-Australian investors in Miami office tower for $2M

East End Capital’s David Peretz and Jonathon Yormak with 100 Biscayne Boulevard (Google Maps, East End) East End Capital claims it’s being stiffed of more than $1.8 million by its Australian investor in a downtown Miami office tower that they once jointly owned. It’s the latest chapter in the acrimony between the former partners in the building. Litigation started…

Doral Industrial Property Sells For $1.9M

CBRE represented the buyer, HMR 8081, LLC, and the seller, 8083 LLC, in the the sale of a free-standing ±7,128-square-foot small bay warehouse located at 8081-8085 NW 66th Street in Miami, which closed January 17. HMR 8081, LLC purchased the asset for $1,900,000, equating to $267 per square foot. CBRE Executive Vice Presidents Larry Genet and Tom O’Loughlin…

Developer Of Citadel HQ Tower: ‘We’re Moving As Fast As We Can’

The developer working on the Brickell headquarters tower for Ken Griffin’s Citadel has revealed new details about the project in an interview with Commercial Observer. Andy Gloor is the CEO of developer Sterling Bay, which is working with Citadel on the potential supertower. Gloor told the website that his company was moving “as fast as we can,” on the project.

Demolition Permit Approved At Casa Bella Site To Make Way For 57-Story Tower

Miami’s Building Department has just approved a permit to demolish a 3-story office building at 1400 Biscayne Boulevard. The approval was granted on January 30 (permit fees are still awaiting payment). At least some tenants have already moved out. According to the demolition permit filing, a total of 249,978 square feet will be demolished, at an estimated cost…

Huge Flight Of Talent & Capital To Miami Continues, Investor Says

Miami is continuing to attract a major amount of investment and capital, a prominent investor said. Jack Abraham, who is the CEO of Atomic Labs, made the comments in an interview yesterday with CNBC. According to Abraham, Miami is “somewhat insulated from the larger economy.” Abraham said that real estate was still going up in Miami, while it is going down…

44-Story Lofty Brickell Becomes Fifth Major Miami Project To Break Ground This Month

A groundbreaking ceremony was held this morning for the 44-story Lofty Brickell, becoming one of five major projects that got underway in Miami this month. Lofty Brickell is planned as a $300M project with 362 condo units (it is said to be 88% sold by the developer). Other projects that have broken ground this month include: On January 9, a groundbreaking ceremony…

South Florida by the numbers: A look back at 2022

(Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty) “South Florida By The Numbers” is a web feature that catalogs the most notable, quirky and surprising real estate statistics. It’s the most wonderful time of the year…for local real estate nerds who love to analyze how their market performed over the previous 12 months. It seems like every association, company, analyst, think tank…

Tri-Rail Downtown was due last fall, now targeted for this fall

A fall start is predicted for Tri-Rail trains to roll into Miami Central Station. David Dech, executive director of the South Florida Regional Transportation Authority (SFRTA), made the projection last week during a presentation to the Citizens’ Independent Transportation Trust (CITT) board. The long-awaited $70 million tax-funded project, which was to be completed in 2017…

Miami-Dade real estate vacancies reach new low as South Florida rent rockets to record highs

Rents rose across all asset classes in South Florida in the fourth quarter of 2022 as vacancies sank further amid a development rush to fill demand. That bodes well for builders and Realtors and shouldn’t too adversely impact the businesses and residents — prospective or already in the area — with enough cash to cover costs. For those struggling to get by, it may portend…

Banesco USA gets new headquarters in Doral, gears to hire 140

With a plan to hire 140 locals in a three-year period, Banesco USA grows its footprint in South Florida, opening a brand new headquarters in Doral. Independent Florida state-chartered bank Banesco USA, with $2.9 billion in assets as of December, has moved its headquarters to Doral to a fully renovated location at 3155 NW 77th Ave. The property, previously Kingsway…

Public-private deal to build workforce housing downtown

The Miami Parking Authority (MPA) has joined another public-private partnership (P3) designed to improve one of its downtown garages and bring much needed workforce housing units to the City of Miami. The MPA is announcing what it calls an innovative mixed-use redevelopment project set to transform the corner of NE Second Avenue and NE Third Street.

First military housing in 30 years due at SouthCom

A military housing complex project in Doral’s U.S. Southern Command land will offer more than 50 acres of affordable housing to military members and their families who serve at the command’s headquarters. Construction is set to begin in the fall. This project will be the first military housing compound constructed in South Florida after the closure of the military housing…

Aimco Maximizing Development Rights At 1001 Brickell Bay Drive

Aimco is working to maximize future development rights on property it owns in Brickell by limiting leases in an office building on the site, according to a quarterly report. The company is the sole owner of the 1001 Brickell Bay Drive office building and the adjacent Yacht Club Apartments, according to a November company presentation. The assemblage size is 4.25 acres, the…

Partial Demo Permit At Omni Is For Former JC Penney Space, Notes Say

Plans have now been filed and are in review for partial demolition at the former Omni, and notes on the permit provide small clarification on what is being demolished. The partial demolition permit was applied for on November 2, with a plan acceptance date of December 20. “This permit is for PARTIAL DEMOLITION – DEMOLITION OF THE JC PENNY IN THE OMNI…

Photos & Video Of Newly Opened CitizenM Miami Worldcenter

The 351-room CitizenM hotel at Miami Worldcenter is now open. A video by Ryan RC Rea shows the lobby of the newly opened hotel:   Made my first *ever* narrated IG reel to highlight the @citizenM at @MIAWorldcenter. Everytime I hear my own voice recorded… I’m like “Who is this person” 😂#Miami pic.twitter.com/Q6PJUvnU3M — Ryan RC Rea…

How real estate’s rich live: Alex Sapir’s wife seeks $175K/month in divorce

Photo Illustration of Alex Sapir and Yanina Sapir (Getty, Google Maps, Facebook) Ever wonder how the wealthy spend their money? In the case of developer Alex Sapir’s wife, Yanina, she doled out $400,000 to attend Burning Man, and spends $6,000 a month on clothing, $5,000 on monthly boating expenses, and more than $15,000 each month for the house manager…

Carillon Miami Beach condo owners win suit over Z Capital’s “dictatorship”

Z Capital’s James Zenni Jr. with Carillon Miami Wellness Resort at 6801 Collins Avenue (LinkedIn, Google Maps, Eleventh Circuit Court) Z Capital Group is poised to lose significant power at the Carillon Miami Wellness Resort. Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Michael Hanzman on Monday ordered that the portion of the Carillon master declaration that vests authority in Z Capital…

Blackstone ramps up tenant evictions

A photo illustration of Blackstone’s Jon Gray (Getty, Blackstone) One of the country’s biggest landlords is ramping up evictions after a long period of pandemic-related forbearance. Blackstone filed eviction lawsuits against hundreds of tenants across the nation, the Financial Times reported. Court records focus on Georgia and Florida, but consultants from the company…

Big-box retail growth has Bed Bath & Beyond landlords thinking

(Photo Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty) Bed Bath & Beyond isn’t gone yet, but news of its potential bankruptcy has landlords already looking beyond the retailer. The real estate rebound of big-box retailers like Burlington and Barnes & Noble are fueling the hopeful fire among landlords of spaces with the potential to be vacated by the home goods…

Lease roundup: Simon’s Dadeland Mall reaps leasing bonanza

From left: Simon Property Group’s David Simon and Cohen Brothers Realty’s Charles Cohen with the Dadeland Mall and the Design Center of the Americas (Getty, Scott Francis, Simon) Dr. Martens, Abercrombie & Fitch I Dadeland Mall Simon Property Group is fresh off a leasing spree at Dadeland Mall in Kendall. Seven new tenants set up shop and six more are slated to…

Florida bill turns to developers to tackle affordable housing

Florida Senate President Kathleen Passidomo (R-Naples) introduced on Thursday an $800 million affordable-housing bill designed to tackle soaring rents by providing incentives to the private sector, the Orlando Sentinel reported. The sweeping, 93-page bill — called the Live Local Act of 2023 — would ease local regulatory laws by requiring municipalities and counties…

Crunch Fitness founder plans adaptive reuse project in Little Haiti

Crunch Fitness and Big Move Properties’ Douglas Levine with aerial of 400 Northeast 67th Street (Big Move Properties, Google Maps, Getty) Crunch Fitness founder Douglas Levine is embarking on his latest adaptive reuse project in Miami. Levine wants to convert roughly 50,000 square feet of warehouses at 400 Northeast 67th Street, and an adjacent lot, into retail and…

Cooper City approves downsized mosque at growing Islamic prep school

A rendering of Nur-ul-Islam Academy An Islamic prep school in Cooper City won approval to develop a new building and a downsized mosque with a 50-foot minaret — half the height originally proposed. The Cooper City Commission approved an amended site plan for the project during a marathon meeting Tuesday, amid complaints from residents about the traffic the…

Another: 450-Unit The Crosby Breaks Ground At Miami Worldcenter, 100% Sold

Developers Related Group and Merrimac Ventures broke ground this morning on the 33-story Crosby Residences tower at Miami Worldcenter. The 450-unit project is 100% sold. Units will be delivered furnished and ready-to-rent, designed for easy listing on all homesharing platforms. There will also be over 22,000 square feet of amenity space, including saunas…

Demolition Permit Filed At 1428 Brickell Where 861-Foot Tower Planned

A demolition permit has just been applied for at 1428 Brickell. According to the January 20 demolition permit filing, total demolition of 100,762 square feet is planned, at an estimated cost of $550,000. In its place, a 71-story, 861-foot luxury residential tower is planned, with 189 condos. The building will have a “solar backbone,” with photovoltaic panels integrated…

44-Story Lofty Brickell Groundbreaking Could Be Coming In Days

A groundbreaking ceremony for the 44-story Lofty Brickell tower could be just days away, according to a filing yesterday with the city. The Special Events permit was filed on January 25, records show. The permit lists Lofty Groundbreaking, with a date of January 31. Earlier this month, the developers told the Herald that construction would get underway in February.

Nearly $750m Sales Reservations In Under 6 Months At St. Regis Residences Sunny Isles

There appears to be huge demand for the new St. Regis Residences planned in Sunny Isles Beach. According to a representative of the developer, the building has taken in nearly $750 million in reservations in less than six months. Two towers are planned, with 175 residences in the south tower, which will be the first to be completed. Each of the 62-story towers…

L&L Holding JV Lands $215M for 1 MSF Miami Project

The Wynwood Plaza. Rendering courtesy of ImerzaThe Wynwood Plaza exterior. Rendering courtesy of ImerzaThe Wynwood Plaza pedestrian paseo. Rendering courtesy of GenslerThe Wynwood Plaza office tower. Rendering courtesy of Gensler A joint venture between L&L Holding Co. and Oak Row Equities has closed on a $215 million construction loan for the…

Ken Griffin kicks in $3M to Miami-Dade fund for housing, other initiatives

Miami-Dade County mayor Daniella Levine Cava and Citadel’s Ken Griffin (Getty, Citadel, Miami-Dade County) Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin is kicking in $3 million to a new fund that will grant money to companies that can solve issues in housing and other sectors. Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava announced the commitment at her State…

B’nai B’rith wins approval to expand rental complex for low-income seniors in Deerfield Beach

B’nai B’rith’s Daniel Mariaschin with aerial of new development site (B’nai B’rith, City of Deerfeild Beach) Jewish service organization B’nai B’rith won approval to add a fourth apartment building to its rental complex for low-income senior citizens in Deerfield Beach. The Deerfield Beach City Commission on Tuesday approved a site development plan to add 62 apartments.

Landmark scores $33M in construction financing for Dania Beach project

Landmark President Robert Saland and rendering of The City Place Apartments in Dania Beach (Landmark Companies) Landmark Development Corporation nabbed $32.9 million in construction financing for an affordable housing project in Dania Beach. The Miami-based developer recently broke ground on The City Place Apartments, a 99-unit complex at…

Riviera Beach CRA approves deal for Marina Village apartment building

A photo illustration of BH Group’s Isaac Toledano, Related Group’s Jorge Perez, and Marina Village in Riviera Beach (Getty, BH Group, Related Group) Riviera Beach’s community redevelopment agency is moving forward on a 99-year ground lease with a joint venture to build a 20-story multifamily project in Marina Village. The Riviera Beach City Commission, acting …

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February 1, 2023

Video: Trepp’s Lonnie Hendry Discusses Loan Delinquency Forecast

Lonnie Hendry with Trepp joins Michael Bull of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to share the current status of troubled loans and expectations moving forward. Discussions include advice for borrowers facing looming loan maturities, and investors looking for opportunities.

Trepp is a leading provider of information, analytics, and services to the structured finance, commercial real estate, and banking markets. Their expanded data sets and market-moving insights provide clients with a more complete picture delivering perhaps unmatched intelligence.

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February 1, 2023

Charts: Miami Area Leads Inbound Moves from 2019 to 2022 as Population Declines Slightly

As can be seen in this chart, the Miami metro area had the largest inbound gains in the country during 2022 versus pre-pandemic 2019. Inbound moves in 2022 increased by near 60% in 2022 compared to 2019 in South Florida. Other charts related to this and related commentary can be found at a recent NAR post, “Where People Moved in 2022.” The biggest surprise here is that Scranton came in second. Scranton! With that influx, presumably Dunder Mifflin will have less challenges finding another Assistant to the General Manager should Dwight be lured away to the sunny 0% state income tax number 1 area on this list.

Also surprising is that Miami-Dade actually experience net migration since COVID-19, as displayed in an ARCGIS dashboard. this was discussed this in a recent Miami Today article, “Magnet pull of South Florida on US residents is just a myth“, as did the Miami Herald in another, “Miami metro residents most rent-burdened in U.S.; Census figures show county population drop.” What appears to be happening, then, is not so much an increase in the population, but instead an increase in the affluence of the population as those that can’t afford it leave to be replaced by those that can.

Although the data ends in 2020, one can see these trends have been going on for some time in St Louis Fed data:

U.S. Census Bureau, Resident Population in Miami-Dade County, FL [FLMIAM6POP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMIAM6POP, February 10, 2023.

U.S. Census Bureau, Resident Population in Miami-Dade County, FL [FLMIAM6POP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMIAM6POP, February 10, 2023.

U.S. Census Bureau, Estimate of Median Household Income for Miami-Dade County, FL [MHIFL12086A052NCEN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHIFL12086A052NCEN, February 10, 2023.

U.S. Census Bureau, Estimate of Median Household Income for Miami-Dade County, FL [MHIFL12086A052NCEN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHIFL12086A052NCEN, February 10, 2023.

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February 1, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 25, 2023: Million SF Wynwood MXU Gets $215M Financing, to Break Ground; Rents Up for All South Florida CRE Asset Classes; More…

L&L Holding, Oak Row Equities Obtain $215M Construction Financing for Mixed-Use Development in Miami

L&L Holding Co. and Oak Row Equities, with project partner Shorenstein Properties and co-investor Claure Group, have obtained $215 million in financing for the construction of The Wynwood Plaza, a mixed-use project in Miami. Construction will begin on the 1 million-square-feet development immediately, with completion scheduled for 2025. Designed by architecture…

One Million-Square-Foot Wynwood Plaza Financed, Will Begin Construction Immediately

The developers of The Wynwood Plaza have obtained $215 million in construction financing. They have also announced that two full floors of office space have been pre-leased. With full project financing now in place, major construction will commence immediately with full completion anticipated in 2025, the developers said in a press release. Gensler is designing the project…

Wynwood Plaza project scores $215M construction loan

In yet another sign that lenders are still confident in the South Florida market, a mixed-use office development in Wynwood secured a $215 million construction loan. Little Rock, Arkansas-based Bank OZK provided the loan to L&L Holding Company, Oak Row Equities, San Francisco-based Shorenstein Properties and Marcelo Claure’s Miami-based Claure Group for…

Downtown Miami’s $185M Riverside Wharf Enters Construction Permitting

The $185M Riverside Wharf complex has moved into the construction permitting phase. Records shows a construction permit was applied for on December 22, with plans submitted on January 4 and now in review. A private provider is being used for plan review and inspections, according to Building Department records. There is no contractor attached to the permit…

Miami-Dade real estate vacancies reach new low as South Florida rent rockets to record highs; up for all asset classes

Rents rose across all asset classes in South Florida in the fourth quarter of 2022 as vacancies sank further amid a development rush to fill demand. That bodes well for builders and Realtors and shouldn’t too adversely impact the businesses and residents — prospective or already in the area — with enough cash to cover costs. For those struggling to get by, it may portend…

MPA Approves ‘Innovative’ Mixed-Use Redevelopment Of College Station Garage

An “innovative” mixed-use redevelopment of the College Station Garage has been given approval by the Miami Parking Authority, according to a press release issued today. Oscar Rodriguez, Principal of developer College Station Partners, LLC, said they were excited to now begin the pre-development process, with groundbreaking “in the very near future.” Under the terms…

JP Morgan’s 2023 commercial real estate outlook

The 2023 commercial real estate outlook indicates there may be challenges ahead. Retail is at a crossroads, and the future of office space is unclear. Plus, supply chain issues persist, and inflation is near 40-year highs, prompting the Fed to steadily increase interest rates. But there are a few bright spots in the commercial real estate forecast. Multifamily properties continue to perform…

Developer plans 7-story self-storage project in Little Haiti

A site in the Little Haiti neighborhood of Miami could be redeveloped as self-storage. The city’s Urban Design Review Board will consider plans for the 24,513-square-foot site at 7140 N.E. Miami Court on Jan. 18. It currently has a 4-unit apartment complex. The property was acquired for $1 million in 2021 by 7200 NE Miami Court LLC, managed by Federico A. Albornoz Sanchez.

Population Growth Metric: Miami-Dade Ranks #1 For Drivers Licenses Exchanged From Other States

Miami-Dade sits atop the list of Florida counties where drivers exchanged their out-of-state licenses in 2022, according to data from Florida’s Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles (via Florida Realtors). Overall Miami-Dade gained 59,113 people last year, the drivers license data shows. Broward ranked second with 40,212, followed by Hillsborough (38,330)…

Fort Partners pays $42M for Surfside condo development site

Fort Partners paid $41.5 million for a Surfside development site where the firm has approval to build a 14-unit condominium. The Miami-based company bought the almost 1-acre property at 9163-9165 Collins Avenue from Wexford Capital, according to records and real estate data provider Vizzda. The buyer also scored a $50 million mortgage for the site…

One Brickell City Centre Supertall Advances With Demolition Filing

A demolition permit has just been applied for at the One Brickell City Centre supertall site. The demolition permit is for a building at 700 Brickell Avenue and was applied for on January 20, according to Miami Building Department records. Review of the permit isn’t yet underway, since the full plans have yet to be filed. There also does not yet appear to be a demolition permit,,,

Mixed-Use Project Proposed To Replace Surface Parking Lot In South Beach

The owner of the Washington Park Hotel in South Beach is proposing a 7-story mixed-use project on an adjacent municipal surface parking lot. WPH Properties, LLC submitted the proposal for a 99-year lease of the city property. The proposal include: 135 structured parking spaces in three levels, including a single subterranean level utilizing mechanical lifts…

Video Shows Model Of 950-Foot Cipriani Residences Planned In Brickell

There’s a scale model of the 80-story Cipriani Residences planned in Brickell in the project’s sales center, according to a video posted by John Pompliano. The Cipriani Residences tower is approved at a height of 940 feet above ground, or 950 feet feet above sea level. Two additional towers with rental apartments are also approved at the same property, rising 50 and 60 stories…

Metromover To Miami Beach Expected To Open In 2028 or 2029

Completion of Metromover to Miami Beach is expected in 2028 or 2029, according to a presentation yesterday by a Miami-Dade commissioner (photos of the presentation were tweeted by Mark R. Brown.) That timeframe is similar to an announcement made by Miami-Dade County a few months ago. In November, the county said that it expected to begin…

NBA Legend Alonzo Mourning Is Expanding His Affordable Housing Reach

The former NBA star, a Hall of Fame center who spent the bulk of his career with the Miami Heat, has stayed in South Florida after his playing days, working as a vice president for his former team. But he has also launched and grown a nonprofit developer, AM Affordable Housing, that has delivered hundreds of new affordable apartments in the Sunshine State.

South Florida industrial market softens, rents rise again in fourth quarter

South Florida’s industrial market slowed down slightly in the final quarter of last year, as vacancies inched up while asking rents rose again. The tri-county region posted a 4 percent vacancy rate compared to 3.4 percent during the same period of the previous year, according to a recent Newmark report. And leasing activity across Miami-Dade, Broward…

Prestige JV scores $21M construction loan for Hialeah apartments

Prestige Companies and its partner scored a $20.5 million construction loan for a multifamily project on a former Salvation Army site in Hialeah, marking the firm’s continued wager on the city. Prestige and Florida Value Partners have started building the project, consisting of 100 townhouses for rent and a three-story building with 12 apartments atop 5,000 square feet…

Seven Brickell Avenue buildings to fall for 400-foot-long residences

New condos are coming to the Brickell neighborhood in the form of a new low-rise multi-family residential project planned for Brickell Avenue. The project, 2200 Brickell, will be a five-story structure, home to 104 dwellings, with interior parking for up to 197 vehicles. The City of Miami’s Urban Development Review Board unanimously voted to recommend approval of the…

Deadline electric bus deal fuels new South Dade rapid transit

New 60-foot battery electric buses are now geared to roll in two years on the South Corridor Rapid Transit Project, which was delayed during the pandemic as a global supply pinch stalled progress. Before that, service had been planned to start this month. Under the gun to order the buses by month’s end to retain the bidder’s price guarantee in the face of inflation…

Miami tourism glows as international arrivals soar

With a planned increased in seat capacity for international passengers coming to Miami and higher hotel occupancy and daily rate recorded in just the first two weeks of this year, the county’s tourism outlook glows brightly. For the first two weeks of the 2023 combined, occupancy in county hotels has risen 8.1% over the last year. Similarly, average daily rate rose 4.6%…

Shore Club Condos Launch, Designed By Robert A.M. Stern Architects

In South Beach, plans for the Shoreclub Private Collection have just been unveiled. It is the first ever oceanfront project designed by the legendary Robert A.M. Stern Architects. It is also the firm’s first-ever residential project in Miami Beach (RAMSA is designing the St. Regis Residences in Brickell, and completed the Miami Beach Library in 2005). The new condos will be built…

Related, Two Roads Launch Bal Harbour Condo Tower With $65M Penthouse

Related Group is charging ahead with another uber-luxury waterfront condominium development in Miami. Related, along with development partners Two Roads Development and Rockpoint Group, launched sales Wednesday on Rivage in Bal Harbour, a 24-story, 61-unit condo building, the developers announced. The project will stand 270 feet with asking prices starting…

Renderings Show What Brickell Key Supertall Tower Could Look Like

What would a supertall tower look like on Brickell Key? Architect Varabyeu Partners has just released a series of renderings showing a potential tower. The architect is based in based in Miami, Minsk and Brest, according to its website. The renderings release comes a few weeks after a Federal Aviation Administration filing requesting approval for two possible new towers…

Piling Equipment Arrives At Brickell Site Where 506-Unit Apartment Building About To Begin

Foundation construction appears about to begin at 444 Brickell Tower II, after equipment was delivered to the site late last week. The 44-story tower is planned to include 506 apartments. Developer Related Group has said it plans to break ground on the project this month, after it obtained a $164 million construction loan recently. Construction permits have already been…

Raanan Katz’s shopping center allegedly tells neighbor: No parking for you!

Raanan Katz is allegedly getting territorial about sharing parking with a neighbor of one of his South Florida shopping centers, according to a recent lawsuit. Upper Deck Ale and Sports Grille is seeking a court order to stop Katz from restricting the adjacent restaurant’s customers access to the parking lot at his RK Sage Plaza at 800 East Hallandale Boulevard in…

Lease roundup: Citigroup Center in downtown Miami nabs tenants

In South Florida’s office leasing spree, Brickell has emerged as a most coveted location. Yet, four firms shunned the neighborhood, instead opting for downtown Miami and specifically for the Citigroup Center tower at 201 South Biscayne Boulevard. In the biggest lease, Andorran private bank Andbanc moved from 1221 Brickell Avenue to 6,700 square feet at Citigroup Center.

How pickleball is invading the real estate world

Pickleball is everywhere. A cross between tennis and ping pong, the racket sport is played in quick games of 11 points. It is played on a smaller court with a shorter net, and people love it. Between August 2021 and August 2022, 14 percent of Americans played pickleball at least once, amounting to 36.5 million picklers playing last year, according to the 2023 APP Pickleball…

Regal Cinemas to close 39 U.S. theaters following bankruptcy

The silver screens at dozens of Regal Cinemas across the nation will go dark soon. The Tennessee-based movie chain, the second largest in the U.S., will close 39 theaters from Los Angeles to New York to Miami after its parent company in the U.K. declared bankruptcy, Variety reported, citing legal filings. Cineworld Group, based in London, will reject the Regal Cinemas leases…

“Existential urgency”: Housing crisis clouds South Florida, expert says

South Florida has benefited from a surge in companies and employees moving to the tri-county region during the pandemic. But for the area to continue to thrive, housing must become more affordable, experts said during a real estate event on Friday. University of Miami professor Andrea Heuson and independent consultant Saif Ishoof provided their economic forecast…

Tishman Speyer exec had $3M portfolio when she disappeared

The husband of missing Tishman Speyer executive Ana Walshe isn’t talking, but one potential motive in her disappearance is emerging. Walshe’s husband, Brian, searched “how long for someone to be missing to inherit,” prosecutors revealed this week at his arraignment on a murder charge. As for what nearby assets could be worth inheriting, Ana had amassed a $2.8 million…

South Florida office rents rise in the fourth quarter

Miami’s Brickell and downtown West Palm Beach continued setting the pace for South Florida’s office market’s momentum in the final quarter of last year, according to a recently released report. Average rents rose across the tri-county region in the fourth quarter, Avison Young’s report shows. Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties’ vacancy…

Brightline Completes Final Installation Of Rail Track On Orlando Segment

The final section of track on Brightline’s new corridor to Orlando has now been installed, according to a video by The Roaming Railfan. To mark the occasion, ceremonial golden clips were installed, tying the final section of rail together. Installation of the last 1600 foot section of tracks is a major milestone in connecting Miami to Orlando by train. The rail forms a brand new segment…

Miami Has The Nation’s Highest Inflation Rate of 23 major Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach’s inflation rate between December 2021 and December 2022 was 9.9%, according to the Consumer Price Index released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, That makes the Miami area number 1 for inflation out of 23 major Metropolitan Statistical Areas, according to a Wallethub analysis. High housing costs in the…

Citadel Brickell Demolition Permit Approved

A demolition permit has been approved at a Brickell property reportedly owned by hedge fund giant Citadel. According to the demolition permit, total demolition of a 6,000 square feet building at 1250 Brickell Bay Drive is planned. A 12-unit apartment building on the site. Citadel is also said to own the office building next door, and is planning an iconic headquarters…

The Crosby Miami Worldcenter Submitted To FAA At 390 Feet

The Crosby – a tower planned to be built at Miami Worldcenter, has been submitted for height approval to the Federal Aviation Administration. According to a January 12 filing with the agency, the tower is planned to rise to a height of 377 feet above ground, or 390 feet above sea level. The Crosby is planned to include 450 condo units and 3,370 square feet of retail…

Chart: Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Price Index Moves, Calculated Standard Deviation, Empirical Rule Observations Using FRED Data

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level, index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve…

Rigged Rent? Residents Allege Massive Price-Fixing Scheme in Miami Apartment Market

Miami ranks as one of the worst cities in the country for housing affordability, if not dead last. The crisis deteriorated last year as the Miami metro area experienced an unparalleled annual spike in housing costs, pushing countless residents to work long hours only to fall short on their bills. A slew of economic factors have been blamed for skyrocketing Miami…

Russian ex-police general buys Pembroke Pines strip mall for $23M

A Russian ex-police general — allegedly tied to a public corruption scandal in his motherland — dropped $23 million for a Pembroke Pines strip mall. An entity managed by Anatoly Petukhov bought the two-building retail property at 304 Southwest 145th Avenue… $689 per square foot for the 33,400-square-foot mall… tenant roster includes Xfinity, the Habit Burger Grill, Pieology…

Boyd Watterson drops $38M for veterans clinic in Sunrise

Healthcare Realty Trust sold a Veterans Affairs clinic in Sunrise for $38.2 million, 23.3 percent less than its purchase price six years ago. Boyd Watterson Asset Management bought the William “Bill” Kling Department of Veterans Affairs Outpatient Clinic at 9800 West Commercial Boulevard, according to…

Brokers’ entity pays $22M for Fort Lauderdale dev site

Cushman & Wakefield’s Denny St. Germain and Robert Given with 1151 Southwest Ninth Avenue in Fort Lauderdale (Cushman & Wakefield, Google Maps) Denny St. Romain and Robert Given are usually brokering land sales for someone else. But in a recent $22 million deal for 11 nearly vacant acres in Fort Lauderdale, the Cushman & Wakefield brokers are the…

Randall Realty pays $15M for Palm Beach office-retail building

Randall Realty Group bought a Palm Beach office and retail building, with plans to open its East Coast headquarters at the property. The Los Angeles-based firm purchased the two-story building at 2875 South Ocean Boulevard for $15 million from The Silverman Group, according to the buyer’s news release. Cushman & Wakefield’s Scott…

Brookfield wants to sell Mizner Park in Boca Raton

Brookfield Properties is looking to sell Boca Raton’s Mizner Park. The massive mixed-use project is on the market unpriced, according to an offering obtained by The Real Deal. Completed in the 1990s, Mizner Park consists of a 272-unit apartment building, 270,000 square feet of retail buildings, a 268,000-square-foot office tower and 2,389 parking spaces. The entire project…

Landstar pays $57M to add 857 acres to Avenir in Palm Beach Gardens

Avenir’s master developer paid $56.7 million for 857 acres in the Palm Beach Gardens planned community. Records show that Avenir Holdings LLC sold the acreage to Avenir Development LLC. Both entities are managed by partners of Landstar Development Group, a Coral Gables-based family-owned real estate development…

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January 25, 2023

Chart: Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Price Index Moves, Calculated Standard Deviation, Empirical Rule Observations Utilizing FRED Data

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023. The data set utilized for this chart is posted below.

Having a published data set allows for calculation of the standard deviation of these returns, noted above as 2.55%. Since these are quarterly, one would divide that by the square root of 4 to arrive at the annualized standard deviation of 5.1%. The quarterly return of 1.06% would be annualized by compounding the return to arrive at an annualized rate of 4.30%, with the compounding adding just a bit more return than if multiplied by 4.

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Summary Calculations

Average Quarterly Change 1.06%
Annualized Change 4.30%
Quarterly Standard Deviation 2.55%
Annualized SD 5.10%

These changes are for the price index only, whereas owners of commercial real estate generally earn income. That rate varies over time, and there is no such corresponding data set over time of which I am aware.  For approximation purposes, however, we’ll assume a 5% capitalization rate for all periods in order to run some empirical rule calculations.

“Risk means more things can happen than will happen.”

~ Elroy Dimson

Empirical Rule Calculations

Price Change Total Return
Annualized Change 4.30% 4.30%
Assumed Cap Rate n/a 5.00%
Average Total Return n/a 9.30%
68% of the time (1 SD) -0.80% to 9.39% 4.20% to 14.39%
95% of the time (2 SD) -5.89% to 14.49% -0.89% to 19.49%
99.7% of the time (3 SD) -10.99% to 19.58% -5.99% to 24.58%

Going by this set of data, it would appear the only about once every 666 years would the total return be worse than -10.99% (1 / [1-99.7%] x 50%). That sounds pretty good, but it also doesn’t seem quite right. Allow me to consider some potential faults with this.

First, I have no idea what goes into this index. It is an index of the Fed. One can assume it is highly diversified, as very few investors are. If you are loaded up on retail properties in Wynwood, what happens nationally is only minimally applicable. Additionally, many investors carry debt, and debt magnifies returns. Finally, this does not feel right. I think the standard deviation feels a bit higher than 5.1%. In prior post, Applying the Black & Scholes Option Pricing Model to Commercial Real Estate Option Pricing, I gave a set of reasons for assuming standard deviation as 6.5%. I still feel more comfortable with that level, frankly. What this Fed data has done for me is to get more comfortable that 6.5% itself is not substantially low, and might even be a touch high. Thank you, FRED.

A final note I’d make about this is that an investor, before allowing this to provide comfort regarding assumed risk, should look at the -30.22% index price move for the year of 2009. That more than 3 SD move deviates considerably from the rest of the dataset. That begs the question of whether that is a black swan type event, i.e. an aberration, if there is something amiss with that 2009 price index data, or if there is something about this 1952 to 2022 period that, aside from 2009, was preternaturally steady for commercial real estate prices (or some combination thereof).  My conclusion is that Yogi Berra had it right long ago when he quipped; “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Level Data:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023.

Period Index Level Quarterly Change
Q1 1952 20251
Q2 1952 20187 -0.32%
Q3 1952 20137 -0.25%
Q4 1952 20187 0.25%
Q1 1953 20238 0.25%
Q2 1953 20529 1.44%
Q3 1953 20807 1.35%
Q4 1953 20769 -0.18%
Q1 1954 20478 -1.40%
Q2 1954 20276 -0.99%
Q3 1954 20276 0.00%
Q4 1954 20301 0.12%
Q1 1955 20352 0.25%
Q2 1955 20529 0.87%
Q3 1955 20807 1.35%
Q4 1955 21275 2.25%
Q1 1956 22224 4.46%
Q2 1956 22148 -0.34%
Q3 1956 22742 2.68%
Q4 1956 22957 0.95%
Q1 1957 23185 0.99%
Q2 1957 23489 1.31%
Q3 1957 23640 0.64%
Q4 1957 23628 -0.05%
Q1 1958 23071 -2.36%
Q2 1958 23223 0.66%
Q3 1958 23312 0.38%
Q4 1958 23375 0.27%
Q1 1959 23223 -0.65%
Q2 1959 23362 0.60%
Q3 1959 23451 0.38%
Q4 1959 23463 0.05%
Q1 1960 23552 0.38%
Q2 1960 23413 -0.59%
Q3 1960 23299 -0.49%
Q4 1960 23135 -0.70%
Q1 1961 23135 0.00%
Q2 1961 23185 0.22%
Q3 1961 23210 0.11%
Q4 1961 23299 0.38%
Q1 1962 23337 0.16%
Q2 1962 23425 0.38%
Q3 1962 23387 -0.16%
Q4 1962 23463 0.32%
Q1 1963 23539 0.32%
Q2 1963 23590 0.22%
Q3 1963 23653 0.27%
Q4 1963 23678 0.11%
Q1 1964 23653 -0.11%
Q2 1964 23906 1.07%
Q3 1964 23944 0.16%
Q4 1964 24323 1.58%
Q1 1965 24361 0.16%
Q2 1965 24539 0.73%
Q3 1965 24602 0.26%
Q4 1965 25095 2.00%
Q1 1966 25019 -0.30%
Q2 1966 25576 2.23%
Q3 1966 25614 0.15%
Q4 1966 25943 1.28%
Q1 1967 26056 0.44%
Q2 1967 26196 0.54%
Q3 1967 26373 0.68%
Q4 1967 26739 1.39%
Q1 1968 27106 1.37%
Q2 1968 27460 1.31%
Q3 1968 27688 0.83%
Q4 1968 28384 2.51%
Q1 1969 28788 1.42%
Q2 1969 29256 1.63%
Q3 1969 29649 1.34%
Q4 1969 30218 1.92%
Q1 1970 30521 1.00%
Q2 1970 31470 3.11%
Q3 1970 31559 0.28%
Q4 1970 32065 1.60%
Q1 1971 32748 2.13%
Q2 1971 33494 2.28%
Q3 1971 34227 2.19%
Q4 1971 34835 1.78%
Q1 1972 35518 1.96%
Q2 1972 35960 1.24%
Q3 1972 36454 1.37%
Q4 1972 37162 1.94%
Q1 1973 37706 1.46%
Q2 1973 38515 2.15%
Q3 1973 39578 2.76%
Q4 1973 40552 2.46%
Q1 1974 41627 2.65%
Q2 1974 43436 4.35%
Q3 1974 45447 4.63%
Q4 1974 47357 4.20%
Q1 1975 48736 2.91%
Q2 1975 49621 1.82%
Q3 1975 50038 0.84%
Q4 1975 50633 1.19%
Q1 1976 50924 0.57%
Q2 1976 51847 1.81%
Q3 1976 52606 1.46%
Q4 1976 53352 1.42%
Q1 1977 55009 3.11%
Q2 1977 56009 1.82%
Q3 1977 57261 2.24%
Q4 1977 58450 2.08%
Q1 1978 59715 2.16%
Q2 1978 61384 2.79%
Q3 1978 62915 2.49%
Q4 1978 64635 2.73%
Q1 1979 66456 2.82%
Q2 1979 68468 3.03%
Q3 1979 70593 3.10%
Q4 1979 72098 2.13%
Q1 1980 73350 1.74%
Q2 1980 74855 2.05%
Q3 1980 76436 2.11%
Q4 1980 78802 3.10%
Q1 1981 82255 4.38%
Q2 1981 85139 3.51%
Q3 1981 87580 2.87%
Q4 1981 90628 3.48%
Q1 1982 92563 2.14%
Q2 1982 93512 1.03%
Q3 1982 93778 0.28%
Q4 1982 93322 -0.49%
Q1 1983 91703 -1.73%
Q2 1983 90742 -1.05%
Q3 1983 90527 -0.24%
Q4 1983 90388 -0.15%
Q1 1984 90502 0.13%
Q2 1984 91400 0.99%
Q3 1984 91969 0.62%
Q4 1984 92513 0.59%
Q1 1985 93196 0.74%
Q2 1985 93423 0.24%
Q3 1985 93917 0.53%
Q4 1985 92263 -1.76%
Q1 1986 94072 1.96%
Q2 1986 95917 1.96%
Q3 1986 97275 1.42%
Q4 1986 98651 1.41%
Q1 1987 100624 2.00%
Q2 1987 102637 2.00%
Q3 1987 103197 0.55%
Q4 1987 103761 0.55%
Q1 1988 104925 1.12%
Q2 1988 106102 1.12%
Q3 1988 106366 0.25%
Q4 1988 106630 0.25%
Q1 1989 107602 0.91%
Q2 1989 108583 0.91%
Q3 1989 108981 0.37%
Q4 1989 109380 0.37%
Q1 1990 108414 -0.88%
Q2 1990 107456 -0.88%
Q3 1990 107014 -0.41%
Q4 1990 106574 -0.41%
Q1 1991 105565 -0.95%
Q2 1991 104565 -0.95%
Q3 1991 101038 -3.37%
Q4 1991 97629 -3.37%
Q1 1992 95396 -2.29%
Q2 1992 93214 -2.29%
Q3 1992 90705 -2.69%
Q4 1992 88264 -2.69%
Q1 1993 87385 -1.00%
Q2 1993 86514 -1.00%
Q3 1993 86432 -0.09%
Q4 1993 86351 -0.09%
Q1 1994 87355 1.16%
Q2 1994 88371 1.16%
Q3 1994 89332 1.09%
Q4 1994 90361 1.15%
Q1 1995 90609 0.27%
Q2 1995 90517 -0.10%
Q3 1995 91234 0.79%
Q4 1995 92103 0.95%
Q1 1996 92508 0.44%
Q2 1996 92706 0.21%
Q3 1996 92062 -0.69%
Q4 1996 97578 5.99%
Q1 1997 105208 7.82%
Q2 1997 105076 -0.13%
Q3 1997 108845 3.59%
Q4 1997 118284 8.67%
Q1 1998 120779 2.11%
Q2 1998 125194 3.66%
Q3 1998 126035 0.67%
Q4 1998 128231 1.74%
Q1 1999 124173 -3.16%
Q2 1999 124148 -0.02%
Q3 1999 129608 4.40%
Q4 1999 131754 1.66%
Q1 2000 124986 -5.14%
Q2 2000 134097 7.29%
Q3 2000 143235 6.81%
Q4 2000 145523 1.60%
Q1 2001 144348 -0.81%
Q2 2001 144419 0.05%
Q3 2001 146031 1.12%
Q4 2001 138637 -5.06%
Q1 2002 142534 2.81%
Q2 2002 141553 -0.69%
Q3 2002 143702 1.52%
Q4 2002 149685 4.16%
Q1 2003 155085 3.61%
Q2 2003 153646 -0.93%
Q3 2003 149486 -2.71%
Q4 2003 151562 1.39%
Q1 2004 160823 6.11%
Q2 2004 168963 5.06%
Q3 2004 180109 6.60%
Q4 2004 179950 -0.09%
Q1 2005 185359 3.01%
Q2 2005 188982 1.95%
Q3 2005 197615 4.57%
Q4 2005 204345 3.41%
Q1 2006 210633 3.08%
Q2 2006 219424 4.17%
Q3 2006 224992 2.54%
Q4 2006 229588 2.04%
Q1 2007 236791 3.14%
Q2 2007 246337 4.03%
Q3 2007 251033 1.91%
Q4 2007 249708 -0.53%
Q1 2008 229637 -8.04%
Q2 2008 233844 1.83%
Q3 2008 227650 -2.65%
Q4 2008 221291 -2.79%
Q1 2009 208222 -5.91%
Q2 2009 170622 -18.06%
Q3 2009 165721 -2.87%
Q4 2009 154418 -6.82%
Q1 2010 159893 3.55%
Q2 2010 172414 7.83%
Q3 2010 170781 -0.95%
Q4 2010 171868 0.64%
Q1 2011 178250 3.71%
Q2 2011 174805 -1.93%
Q3 2011 172509 -1.31%
Q4 2011 182451 5.76%
Q1 2012 182977 0.29%
Q2 2012 182262 -0.39%
Q3 2012 185364 1.70%
Q4 2012 188270 1.57%
Q1 2013 191017 1.46%
Q2 2013 202087 5.80%
Q3 2013 213128 5.46%
Q4 2013 212451 -0.32%
Q1 2014 209591 -1.35%
Q2 2014 219049 4.51%
Q3 2014 223174 1.88%
Q4 2014 230717 3.38%
Q1 2015 241231 4.56%
Q2 2015 246152 2.04%
Q3 2015 246392 0.10%
Q4 2015 244138 -0.91%
Q1 2016 239814 -1.77%
Q2 2016 248433 3.59%
Q3 2016 256867 3.39%
Q4 2016 257315 0.17%
Q1 2017 252540 -1.86%
Q2 2017 266115 5.38%
Q3 2017 268458 0.88%
Q4 2017 272567 1.53%
Q1 2018 274951 0.87%
Q2 2018 275509 0.20%
Q3 2018 276359 0.31%
Q4 2018 272775 -1.30%
Q1 2019 285385 4.62%
Q2 2019 299015 4.78%
Q3 2019 296344 -0.89%
Q4 2019 294000 -0.79%
Q1 2020 298895 1.66%
Q2 2020 295352 -1.19%
Q3 2020 300713 1.82%
Q4 2020 312942 4.07%
Q1 2021 314009 0.34%
Q2 2021 322439 2.68%
Q3 2021 345789 7.24%
Q4 2021 358385 3.64%
Q1 2022 349813 -2.39%
Q2 2022 348985 -0.24%
Q3 2022 358378 2.69%

~

Don’t rely on this in any way to make investment decisions. These are just observations, and may be incorrect. On that note, if you find an error in the calculations, logic, or assumptions, contact me and let me know!

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January 18, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 18, 2023: Beige Book Brings Positive Signs on Inflation; Airport West Warehouse Trades for $20M, Sale Leaseback; More…

Fed’s Beige Book Brings Some Positive Signs on Inflation

From mid-November through December last year, the gap between labor supply and demand appeared to narrow, and nonlabor cost increases slowed, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s new Beige Book report of economic conditions in the Southeast. Broadly, economic activity grew gradually as retailers reported solid holiday sales, auto sales rose…

February Groundbreaking Announced For 44-Story Brickell Tower, 88% Sold

A February groundbreaking date has been announced for the 44-story Lofty Brickell, according to the Herald. Construction permitting is already underway, Miami Building Department records show. Demolition at the site has been completed. The developer is also planning to build additional housing towers on land it owns adjacent to the Lofty site, the report said. Lofty will…

South Florida Office Market Keeps Ascending To New Heights

The epicenter of the activity remains Brickell, Miami’s financial hub, where asking rents hit $88.83 per SF in the fourth quarter, a 33% increase year-over-year, according to Blanca Commercial Real Estate data provided to Bisnow. Miami saw 1M SF of leasing activity in the quarter and a record-breaking 4.3M SF in 2022, of which 811K SF consisted of new-to-market tenants.

Chart: Miami-Dade Commercial Real Estate Sales vs. Average, then vs. 5-Year Treasury, Five Years Ending December 2022

In the chart above, the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average is plotted by month, grouped by year; the dataset is displayed just below. The most striking element is the year end surge of 2021, with closed sales exceeded 250% of the average. The next most striking thing is perhaps the surge in the first half of 2022, which is of course really a continuance of late 2021.

Namdar Towers Utilities Deal Signed – 1,400 New Apartments Coming To Downtown Miami

A giant new utilities agreement has just been recorded that will bring nearly 1,400 new apartments to downtown Miami. The deal will allow for Namdar Towers to move forward with construction. Permitting is already underway for the project with Miami’s Building Department. According to the utilities agreement recorded on January 13, Namdar Towers will include…

Naftali Group Towers At Miami Worldcenter Approved By FAA To Rise 691 Feet

Naftali Group has obtained height approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for a twin-tower project planned at Miami Worldcenter. According to a letter issued by the agency on January 13, the developer is permitted to build to a height of 684 feet above ground, or 691 feet above sea level. Naftali Group purchased the property in March for for $40.5 million.

Terra, Turnberry Select Balfour Beatty to Construct 800-Room Hotel in Miami Beach

Locally based co-developers Terra and Turnberry have selected Balfour Beatty to construct the new Grand Hyatt Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel. Located at the intersection of 17th Street and Convention Center Drive, the 17-story, 800-room hotel will serve as the central anchor of the Miami Beach Convention Center District. The design-build team also includes…

Stockbridge Buys $20M Warehouse in Miami Airport West Sale-Leaseback Deal

CA-based real estate investment management firm Stockbridge has completed its $20-million purchase of 4343 NW 77th Avenue, a 28,000-square-foot single tenant warehouse/service facility sitting on 5.6-acres of land in the Airport West submarket of Miami, FL. Wayne Ramoski of Cushman & Wakefield and Kemp Conrad of Cushman & Wakefield represented the seller…

13th Floor, Adler Deliver 37-Story Cascade Apartment Tower in Miami

A joint venture between locally based 13th Floor Investments and Adler Development, in partnership with global investment manager Barings, has delivered Cascade, a 37-story apartment tower located at 3050 SW 37th Ave. in Miami. The 421-unit community is the second residential high-rise to be delivered within the Link at Douglas, a seven-acre master-planned…

RFR, Tricap file dueling lawsuits for control of W South Beach

New York developers Aby Rosen and David Edelstein are in a high-noon standoff over a proposed buyout deal for the W South Beach — with a maturing loan raising the stakes. Entities controlled by Edelstein, principal of Tricap (formerly Tristar Capital), and Rosen, co-founder and principal of RFR Realty, recently filed dueling lawsuits against each other in Miami-Dade…

Related, partners launch sales of Bal Harbour condos, with PH asking over $65M

The Related Group, Two Roads Development and Rockpoint are launching sales of Rivage, a planned oceanfront condo project in Bal Harbour. The developers are betting on continued demand for large, ultra-luxury units on the water, and they’re looking to fill a gap in supply in Bal Harbour, where Oceana, built in 2016, ranks as the most recently completed…

“Of grave concern”: Neighboring condo owners oppose Aimco’s Edgewater project

Just as Aimco’s apartment project in Edgewater makes headway, opposition from a pair of neighboring condominiums could throw a wrench in plans. The Bay Park Towers and Charter Club condo associations are asking Miami to rescind its approval of eight waivers granted to the project that allow deviations from development code requirements related…

Map: Here’s where South Florida is getting new apartments this year

A record number of new apartments are on tap in South Florida this year. South Florida multifamily developers are expected to complete 22,541 units in 2023, which would surpass annual deliveries for at least the past decade, according to a Berkadia report. The volume of new units is almost double the 12,179 apartments completed last year and more than the roughly…

Corporate Relocations And A Strong Housing Market Continue To Draw Top Developers To Miami

Miami real estate continues to post records. According to the Miami-Dade Beacon Council, the county’s public-private economics development partnership, 57 companies relocated to Miami last year. In addition, another 150 indicated they were likely to move their operations to South Florida. Competition for available office space is intense and rents are rising.

Chetrit, Facing Loan Default, Looking To Offload Over 8,000 Units

While an expected wave of distressed property sales hasn’t yet hit, ripples are starting to emerge. New York landlord Chetrit Group is looking to sell more than 8,000 residential units it acquired across 10 states in 2019 as it faces default on a $481M loan it used to finance the acquisition, The Real Deal reports, citing a report by Trepp. The CMBS loan, originated by JPMorgan…

‘Topgolf for Pickleball’ and Other Emerging Retail Concepts To Watch in 2023

Retail has never been more active. At least by one measure. Many national retailers are still expanding despite recession fears heading into 2023. And many of them are trying out new, unorthodox concepts. This comes as monthly retail sales (excluding auto, gasoline, and online retailers, a measure that best encapsulates brick-and-mortar retail sales), pushed to a new record high…

Moving Miami-Dade’s Urban Development Boundary Could Jeopardize Work To Restore Water Flow To Biscayne Bay

Late last year, just before Miami-Dade County Commissioners made the controversial decision to move the urban boundary that protects wetlands and farms to make way for a warehouse complex in South Dade, former chairman Jose ‘Pepe’ Diaz lectured opponents at the crowded commission chambers. “It is not environmentally sensitive land,” he said. “What is important is that […]…

40-Story 2600 Biscayne Advances With Utilities Agreement Signed

The partnership of developers planning a 40-story tower at 2600 Biscayne are moving forward with a newly signed agreement with Miami-Dade’s Water & Sewer Department. According to the deal recorded on January 12, the county will provide utilities to the new development. The utilities agreement states that 2600 Biscayne will include: 399 apartments 174,524 sf…

FAA Approves One River Pointe To Rise 797 Feet

Downtown Miami’s One River Point towers have been granted approval by the Federal Aviation Administration – again. The project includes two 60-story towers connected at the top. According to a letter issued by the FAA on January 16, the towers are permitted to rise to a height of 788 feet above ground, or 797 feet above sea level. In 2014, the FAA approved…

Appeal Filed Over City Approval Of 60-Story Edgewater Tower

Approval of a 650-foot apartment tower in Edgewater is being appealed. Aimco is planning a 60-story tower with 241 residential units at 560-640 NE 34th Street. The appeal was filed by Bay Park Towers Condominium Association Inc., which neighbors the property to the south. The 13-story, 254-unit Bay Park was built in 1961, and multiple developers have been trying…

Shojaees sue Miami agent who called wife Stephanie a “gold digger”

In a nasty comment online, a Miami realtor claims Masoud Shojaee “stole money from his daughters’ trust fund to buy elaborate gifts for this gold digger” — referring to Masoud’s wife, Stephanie. That’s just a taste of the mean things Joanne Silva, an agent with Cervera Real Estate, said about the Shojaees in a recent Instagram post. Now, the Shoma Group power couple…

Jesta wins approval for apartment, hotel project on North Bay Village Shuckers site

Jesta Group scored approval for its multifamily and hotel project on the site of popular Shuckers Waterfront Grill in North Bay Village. The green light marks progress for plans that have been in the works for more than two years, as well as a continuation of North Bay Village’s redevelopment that aims to morph the municipality into a mecca of high-rises. Jesta will build…

Landlords target home design tenants for empty MiMo retail spaces

In the past year, an organic mattress shop, a floral and plant store and a high-end flooring company have moved into a single-story building at 6665 Biscayne Boulevard — a sign that retail leasing in Miami’s Upper Eastside is picking up. But the neighborhood’s commercial landlords may not be able to count on them for the long haul, experts say. Known for its…

Fixing Florida property insurance mess a slow process

After the two bills aimed at fixing the property insurance crisis in Florida, experts are hopeful the new measures are a step in the right direction, but the effects will still take time. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed senate bill 4-A and senate bill 2-A from the special session in December. The first bill provides $750 million for disaster relief to Floridians affected by…

Miami OKs LED signs, bayfront parks billboards advance

Vibrant hues have illuminated Miami for decades, and now the addition of large LED billboards on government-owned property will intensify the city’s colorful neon backdrop. The Miami City Commission on Jan. 12 gave final approval to amend the sign ordinance to allow larger digital advertising signs on numerous city properties. An ordinance allowing advertising…

Concerns mount over boat ramp at Miami Marine Stadium

City of Miami officials continue to forge ahead with a plan to develop and construct a boat ramp next to Marine Stadium on Virginia Key, over the concerns and objections of the city’s own Virginia Key Advisory Board and other organizations. Members of the advisory board tangled and argued several times throughout 2022 with city staff who were actively promoting…

Notable Retail Leases Signed in South Florida Q4 2022

South Florida Retail Real Estate Leases 2021 – 2022 We’ve compiled a comprehensive list of the top retail leases signed by square footage in South Florida during 2022 and throughout 2021. This past quarter was busy overall, and there were several big box leases signed and sealed. Despite the sentiment that the traditional retail market…

U.S. shopping center vacancy hits 15-year low

Shopping centers haven’t been this well occupied since prior to the Great Recession, but the reason for that may be cause for concern. The vacancy rate in the fourth quarter for shopping centers — typically defined as a sizable area with a large amount of individual stores, as opposed to a mall where many stores are in the same building — was 5.7 percent, according to a…

Miami board to vote on Kushner’s Edgewater rental project, Aria’s Brickell condo building

Kushner Companies, Aria Development Group and a self-storage developer all have projects going before the city of Miami this week. The Miami Urban Development Review Board will review plans for New York-based Kushner and PTM Partners’ massive multifamily mixed-use development in Edgewater, as the proposal moves through the site plan review process. The phased…

eBay car stereo retailer buys Hialeah warehouse

eBay car electronics retailer Techronics is turning up its distribution volume in Hialeah. An entity managed by Techtronics President Sharome Yerushalmi and company CEO Yoel Gidanian paid $10 million for a roughly 37,000-square-foot warehouse at 3130 West 15th Avenue, records show. Popular Bank provided the buyer with a $5.5 million mortgage. The deal breaks…

Banesco Expands Construction Lending, MasTec Expects Rebound

Building costs may be out of control, but that did not stop Miami-based Banesco USA from announcing a construction loan of $22.3 million for a mixed-use development on Miami Beach. The hyper-modern designed building at 1685 Washington Ave. is just off of Lincoln Road, the popular shopping, dining, and nightlife destination, and includes a luxury hotel, restaurant…

Lease roundup: Nuveen scores European bank, Rosen’s RFR nabs coworking firm

BNP Paribas Securities I Brickell I Miami A subsidiary of European bank BNP Paribas will open an office in Miami’s Brickell, marking continued migration of financial firms to the neighborhood. BNP Paribas Securities Corporation signed a seven and a half year lease for 7,700 square feet at 801 Brickell Avenue, according to…

The Webster wants to sell Miami Beach HQ on Collins Avenue

The Webster, a fashion house that sells designer clothing and home furnishings, is looking to sell an even larger piece of merchandise. The Miami Beach-based company is listing its headquarters for sale, asking $15.5 million to free up cash for an expansion… But the retailer will only sell if it can stay as a long-term tenant… of the historic building at 1220 Collins Avenue, said Jared…

Plans Filed With UDRB For Edgewater Collective, With 1,300 Residential Units

Plans have been submitted to the Urban Development Review Board for a three-tower project called Edgewater Collective. One of the towers is already rising at 2000 Biscayne, with 420 units under construction in a 36-story building. Demolition to clear the way for two additional towers at 1900 Biscayne began in May 2022. Construction permitting for the second…

Pink Street Furniture, Rock Salt Sidewalks Planned For 41st Street In Miami Beach

A design team has presented an updated vision for a project to revitalize 41st Street in Miami Beach. The new proposal calls for “oases” at several points along the street, paved with bright Miami Beach Red Concrete with a salt rock finish. Benches, bike racks, trash receptacles, and street lamps at the oases would be painted a pinkish color to match the concrete.

First Paint At 648-Foot Chetrit Miami River Tower, Second Tower Breaking Ground Soon

Chetrit Group’s 54-story rental apartment tower on the Miami River continues its rapid construction with painting now underway, new photos show. The tower is being built as a “premier rental building,” the developer said recently. Two retail buildings are also now under construction, according to the developer. Groundbreaking on a luxury condo tower is planned…

58-Story Downtown 1st Shown Near Completion With ‘Modern Tropical’ Interior

Downtown 1st, a 58-story tower, now has a “modern tropical” interior, with leasing underway, according to the project’s Instagram page. It is the tallest apartment building ever by developer Melo Group. The tower broke ground with test piling in March 2021, with top off taking place in April 2022. The project includes 560 market-rate rental apartments, 10,000 sf…

Mindspace Signs for 32 KSF Miami Coworking Space

Mindspace, an international boutique flex space provider, has unveiled plans for a new, 31,192-square-foot coworking space in downtown Miami. The company has signed a 10-year lease at 100 N. Biscayne Blvd., planning to occupy three floors at the 30-story tower. RFR Realty owns the 310,000-square-foot Class A office property, after an $81.1 million acquisition in January…

Harbert Management drops $66M for Broward warehouse complexes

Harbert Management Corporation paid $65.8 million for a Broward County industrial park. An affiliate of the Birmingham, Ala.-based investment management firm acquired Lauderdale Lakes Industrial Flex Park, a collection of 11 small-bay warehouses spanning nearly 360,000 square feet completed in 1973, records and Vizzda show. The…

Related Group joins $1B-plus Bahia Mar project in Fort Lauderdale

Jorge Pérez’s Related Group joined the development team of the planned Bahia Mar project in Fort Lauderdale, as the Miami-based firm continues expanding throughout South Florida. Related entered into a joint venture with Jimmy Tate’s Tate Capital and Sergio Rok’s Rok Enterprises to redevelop the major mixed-use project at a site that is home to the Fort Lauderdale…

JV drops $40M for portfolio of aging Palm Beach County rentals

A partnership between New York and Toronto-based companies is betting on aging apartment complexes in Palm Beach County. North Point Management and Medallion Corporation bought five garden-style communities consisting of a total of 433 units in unincorporated parts of the county for $40.1 million, according to records…

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January 18, 2023

Charts: Miami-Dade Commercial Real Estate Sales vs. Average, and vs. 5-Year Treasury, Five Years Ending December 2022

Miami-Dade Commercial Property Sales, Percent of Avg, Grouped by Year: January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Dataset Obtained 1/10/23

January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Dataset Obtained 1/10/23

In the chart above, the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average is plotted by month, grouped by year; the dataset is displayed just below. The most striking element is the year end surge of 2021, with closed sales exceeded 250% of the average. The next most striking thing is perhaps the surge in the first half of 2022, which is of course really a continuance of late 2021. The third most striking thing is the plunge from elevated levels only five months prior to ones one might refer to as more normal at year end 2022, with closed sales at 83.2% of the average for the prior five years, down from 254% in December 2021 and 153% as late as July 2021.

Miami-Dade Commercial Property Sales Percent of Average vs. 5-Year US Treasury Yield: January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Retrieved 1/10/23 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [DGS5], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 9, 2023.

January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Retrieved 1/10/23 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [DGS5], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 9, 2023.

The second chart is of the same data as in the prior chart, but plotted over the entire period, i.e. not grouped by year, and plotted against the rocket fuel for this surge, interest rates, here represented by 5-year US Treasury yields. The surge from around Q2 2021 through Q2 2022 is more evident when viewed this way. Also standing out is the negative correlation between interest rates and commercial property sales, albeit perhaps with a slight lag. What is lost when viewed this way is the year over year, i.e. season versus season, and particularly December versus December, comparison.

Also interesting to note is that that this is the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average, with that average itself elevated by the results during the sales surge. This creates what I’ll call a denominator effect, with percentages outside of the surge appearing weak when in truth they’re probably just more normal. As an illustration of this denominator effect, the peak sales of December 2021 were 370% of the average from 2018 to 2020 vs. 254% of the entire five year period. Similarly, the 48.1% trough of October 2021 improves to 70.1% when considered versus this 2018 to 2020 period.

It is important to note that this data is not perfect. First, this only represent sales that were recorded in the Miami Association of Realtors Commercial MLS.  Regardless, given that this is apples to apples, I believe it is reasonably representative of general trends over time. Also, this is only for sales of properties over $1M.Thus, changes in overall market pricing would affect the numbers. In this case, in what has been a rising market, sales in later years are likely a bit elevated vs. prior years simply because rising prices pushed sales above this threshold on properties than in prior periods would have traded below it. Given the rise of prices over the past five years, there is surely some such effect, particularly when considering 2022 vs. 2018. However, such an effect would likely not be enormous, and would be more at that extreme of the end of the five years vs. the beginning. The aforementioned denominator effect isn’t a data flaw, but could be seen as somewhat of a distortion of ratios. The bottom line, with all of this, as you view these charts, think about the variables, and consider that these charts are perhaps insightful, but (again) not perfect.

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January 11, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 11, 2023: Supertall Planned for Brickell Key; Hialeah Industrial Dev Site Trades for $111M, West Miami-Dade Data Center Dev Site for $14M; More…

Metronomic loses Coconut Grove project in foreclosure sale

Developer Metronomic lost its completed Coconut Grove apartment project in a foreclosure sale, adding to its financial woes of recent years. Wilmington Trust, the largest creditor on GroveHaus, sold the 10-unit building at 3265 Bird Avenue for $8.1 million in a foreclosure sale to Bolonki LLC, an entity led by Norberto Roman and Julia Roman, according to…

EdgeConneX buys dev site for data center in Doral

EdgeConneX is betting on the data center real estate market. The firm wants to build a nearly 173,000-square-foot facility on land it purchased at the Beacon Station industrial park in west Miami-Dade County, according to records. An entity led by Juan Fayen and Juan Ramos sold the 6.3-acre site for $13.7 million. The data center…

Centennial plans 190 affordable rentals in Florida City

As South Florida’s ever-rising rents continue to price out apartment dwellers, Centennial Management is betting on affordable housing in Florida City. The Miami Lakes-based firm plans the 190-unit Cordova Estates townhouse rental complex south… The seven-building community is planned for a 12.2-acre site that includes properties at 321 and 329 East Davis Parkway.

506-Unit Brickell Apartment Tower Set To Break Ground This Month

Related Group has obtained a $164 million construction loan for 444 Brickell Tower II and will begin construction this month, the developer told Commercial Observer. Construction financing for the adjacent 75-story Baccarat tower is also imminent, the developer said. 444 Brickell Tower II will include 506 apartments in a 44-story tower. Construction permits have already…

Commissioners Move Forward With Expedited Metrorail To Hard Rock Stadium

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Residential Building With 427 Units Planned Near Metromover Station

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Crypto Firm FTX’s Miami Office Lease Deals Axed in Bankruptcy Court

Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange FTX was gearing up to move its headquarters to Miami less than two weeks before the company’s collapse late last year. On October 26, West Realm Shires, operator of FTX’s U.S. exchange, executed a lease for office space in a Brickell Avenue commercial skyscraper with sprawling views of Biscayne Bay — a deal that would’ve made the…

Wall Of Glass Now Rising At Miami World Tower 1

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New Year, Same Story: Another Big Law Firm Opening First Miami Office

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Atlantic | Pacific Breaks Ground on 616-Unit Miami Community

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Atlantic Pacific Cos. Breaks Ground on 616-Unit Mixed-Income Residential Development in Miami

Atlantic Pacific Cos. (A|P) has broken ground on Atlantic Station, a 616-unit mixed-income rental community located at 151 NW 7th St. in Miami. The Boca Raton, Fla.-based developer says the project is the largest, single-phase, transit-oriented mixed-income community in Miami-Dade County. Atlantic Station will comprise 256 market-rate apartments and 360 workforce housing…

Will High Inflation Persist?

Monetary policy efforts to curb inflation have been a major component of economic news this past year. And for good reason: At its peak in June 2022, the headline consumer price index (CPI) was almost 9% higher than it was a year before. The consumer price index excluding food and energy—often known as core CPI—peaked in September, at about 6.7%. By either measure…

Swire plans two-tower project with supertall on Brickell Key

Swire Properties wants to add one more supertall to its pipeline of projects in Miami. The real estate arm of the Hong Kong-based firm is proposing a two-tower development on Brickell Key, a man-made island that connects to Brickell, according to filings with the Federal Aviation Association. The buildings would rise on the waterfront site of the existing…

Aimco spinoff Air pays $251M for South Beach Southgate Towers

Air Communities beefed up its portfolio with the $250.5 million purchase of Southgate Towers in Miami Beach. Air, or Apartment Income Real Estate Investment Trust, paid $223.5 million for the pair of 14-story multifamily buildings at 910 West Avenue, and $26.9 million for the garage with ground-floor retail at 959 West Avenue, according to records. The Gumenick…

Vlad Doronin, Len Blavatnik score $242M construction loan for Aman Miami Beach

Billionaires Vlad Doronin and Len Blavatnik secured a $242.4 million construction loan from Bank OZK for the oceanfront Aman Miami Beach development, bringing the total financing to more than $277 million. Affiliates of Doronin’s OKO Group and Blavatnik’s Access Industries are partnering on the two-building luxury hotel and condo project, under…

What are Community Development Districts? Inside a key financing mechanism for big developers

In the mid-2010s, Miami Worldcenter master developers Art Falcone and Nitin Motwani faced a dilemma planning the $4 billion mixed-use community in downtown Miami’s Park West section. How would they pay for the sewer pipes, roads and sidewalks needed to support new high-rise buildings on more than 25 acres of primarily industrial properties and vacant parking…

$1 million aid would put Olympia Theater restoration $16 million shy

The Miami City Commission is to decide today (1/12) whether to appropriate $1 million to fund the ongoing restoration of the historic Olympia Theater and Tower. The commission is to consider a resolution to accept $500,000 from the Florida Department of State Division of Historical Resources to repair the Olympia Theater. The city is required to match the grant funds…

Coral Gables Developer Allen Morris Lets It All Out in His Book “All In”

The audience of some 100 people included a who’s who of prominent citizens, especially those in real estate, investing, and banking. Ad- dressing them in a dark blue suit and pin-striped shirt, W. Allen Morris was a portrait of affability, in contrast to some of the darker moments described in his book. He was at Books & Books to talk about “All In,” his autobiography of…

First Ever Supertall Tower Proposed On Brickell Key

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36-Story Atlantic Station Breaks Ground in Overtown, Miami’s Largest Mixed Income TOD

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Demolition Underway At 710 Edge Property

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Florida Was The Fastest Growing State In 2022, Census Says

Florida’s population increased 1.9% between 2021 and 2022 – faster than any other state in the nation, according to the Census Bureau. It is the first time since 1957 that Florida has ranked #1 for growth on a percentage basis, the agency said. As of July 1, 2022, Florida’s population was 22,244,823, up 416,754 compared to the same time in 2021. Only Texas added more on a…

Up for vote this week: Aman Miami Beach, medical marijuana zoning in Miami

This week, the Miami City Commission is set to vote on a number of zoning ordinances, including one tied to medical marijuana dispensaries. And a Miami Beach board will review changes to the redevelopment of the historic Versailles property into the Aman Miami Beach. At Tuesday’s Miami Beach Historic Preservation Board meeting, developer Vlad Doronin’s…

Commercial Borrowing Cost: Rate Watch for December 30, 2022

The interest rate environment has changed fairly dramatically over the past 18 months. At the end of 2022, five year treasury rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, closed at 3.99%, up from the 0.2% to 0.4% range it was bouncing around within during the months preceding February 2021. If one considers this essentially 4% versus 0.5%, then this would represent…

A Turkish Tower in Downtown Miami

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The Great Tsunami: How Miami has become the new global city

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Investors sue Rishi Kapoor over Urbin Coconut Grove project

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Miami-Dade ranks as ‘most competitive’ apartment market in 2022

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Berkowitz makes first industrial play in Homestead

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Carlyle and Crow Buy Miami Industrial Site for $24M

A joint venture between private equity giant Carlyle Group and developer Crow Holdings bought land west of Coral Gables, a wealthy suburb of Miami, likely for industrial development. The duo paid $24 million for an 8.6-acre parcel at 2811 SW 70th Avenue, just south of Coral Way and adjacent to the Palmetto Expressway, and simultaneously secured a $72.1M…

The Lion King: Can Robert Rivani conquer Miami’s restaurant jungle?

After dropping $19 million on the ground-floor retail space at the Miami Beach boutique condominium Marea at the end of 2021, Robert Rivani wasn’t finished. The Black Lion Investment Group founder immediately began eyeing another prime retail space down the street owned by the same sellers, A&D Group Realty’s Domenico Albano and Americo D’Agostini.

Fortune, KAR score financing for One River Point condo tower

Developers Edgardo Defortuna and Shahab Karmely secured financing for their planned waterfront condo project along the Miami River. Defortuna’s Fortune International Group bought into the One River Point site late last year, joining Karmely’s KAR Properties. Karmely’s plans for the 60-story, connecting two-to…

Industrial Real Estate Rents Take Flight Near Airports

Industrial real estate near airports in the nation’s most densely populated areas could be attractive investments for 2023. With transportation accounting for up to 70% of overall supply chain costs, businesses are increasingly locating their distribution centers closer to airports, according to CBRE Supply Chain Advisory. Many companies also have brought manufacturing…

10 of 2022’s Biggest Commercial Real Estate Trends

While commercial real estate is typically viewed as a long-term investment — both for property owners and the businesses that lease space in their buildings — it’s certainly not immune to the influence of trends. And 2022 was perhaps more trend-oriented than most years in the industry. As the world finally began to fully emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic…

Jonathan Landau On Launching His New Firm Landau Properties And Why He Left Fortis

The former CEO of Fortis Property Group started a new chapter in his career last month, and he is bringing his family along with the launch of Landau Properties. Landau will be working side by side with his daughter and son-in-law, Yaeli and DC Lowinger, and looking at developments in South Florida, New York and Boston. The family firm plans to start construction on its…

Ares pays $111M for warehouse dev site in Hialeah

From left: Ares Management’s co-founders Antony Ressler and Michael Arougheti along with an aerial view of Ares’ newly-acquired 52 acres of land on the northwest corner of Northwest 154th Street and West 40th Avenue in Hialeah: Ares Management paid $111.1 million for a Countyline Corporate Park development site in Hialeah, with plans for a three-building industrial complex.

BNP Paribas To Open New Office in Miami

BNP Paribas Securities Corp, a unit of Europe’s leading bank BNP Paribas, today announced its plans to open a new office in the metro-Miami area. The Miami office will support the continued growth of its Global Markets business in the US, amongst others, and the increasing number of clients with a foothold in South Florida. The hub will provide an additional gateway…

This Week’s South Florida Deal Sheet

Harbor Group International has acquired an apartment community in Miami Gardens for $113M. The Virginia-based investor bought the 420-unit development known as Oak Enclave Miami on Dec. 29 from Resia, a firm owned by Brazilian-based developer MRV, the South Florida Business Journal reports. Cushman & Wakefield brokered the deal. The 14-acre parcel includes five…

Top 10 Commercial Real Estate Trends for 2023

In 2022, spiking interest rates, inflation and a war in the Ukraine brought considerable change to commercial real estate and the U.S. economy overall. With interest rates and values expected to stabilize, and all stakeholders rethinking the highest and best use of their property and capital, this year promises to be an interesting one, too. Here are 10 trends likely to shape…

U-Haul Growth States of 2022: Texas, Florida Top List Again

Texas, Florida and the Carolinas were the preferred destinations of one-way U-Haul® truck customers during 2022, ranking as the top growth states on the annual U-Haul Growth Index. U-Haul transactional data confirms that migration to the Southeast and Southwest U.S. – trends that were amplified and accelerated during the pandemic – continued through last year, although…

Brightline Gets Big Boost In Traffic From Aventura & Boca, New Trains Added

Brightline told investors today that it is seeing strong traffic at its two new stations in Aventura & Boca Raton. The Boca station opened December 21, with Aventura opening December 24. In the final days of December, the two new stations accounted for 24% of Brightline ridership, with 17,682 rides. The company said it moved two Orlando trainsets to the south segment…

Photo: Spider-Like Arch Of Signature Bridge Now Rising

A new photo by Phillip Pessar shows one of the Signature Bridge arches rising out of the ground. Each segment will be a precast installation, except for the final segment (seen in purple) poured in place. Temporary towers will support the structure during the work… Pictures show current construction, plans, and rendering of completed bridge…

CareRite pays $36M for pair of Broward nursing, rehab centers

CareRite Centers paid $35.6 million for two Broward County nursing and rehabilitation facilities, marking the firm’s continued investment in South Florida’s health care market. The firm bought Manor Pines at 1701 Northeast 26th Street in Wilton Manors, and Manor Oaks at 2121 East Commercial Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale, according to records and real estate data provider…

Capital Square Purchases Parkland Multifamily Asset

Parkland Apartments. Image courtesy of Bell Partners Capital Square has added a nearly fully occupied community in Parkland, Fla. to its portfolio of Section 1031 communities. The firm acquired the 396-unit Parkland Apartments on behalf of CS1031 Parkland Apartments, DST from Bell Partners. The firm is looking to raise $105.7 million in equity from investors, with a minimum…

Steve Ross scores approval for 515 Fern in downtown West Palm

Stephen Ross’ plan to develop the biggest office tower in downtown West Palm Beach passed a major hurdle on Wednesday. The West Palm Beach Downtown Action Committee greenlit the site plan and four variances, or exemptions from the city code, for the planned 25-story 515 Fern. City approval of several other aspects of the project are still pending. Ross’ Related Companies…

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January 11, 2023

Commercial Borrowing Cost: Rate Watch for December 30, 2022

U.S. Treasury 5 Year Nominal Rates Dec 30, 2017 to December 30, 2022

U.S. Treasury 5 Year Nominal Rates Dec 30, 2017 to December 30, 2022

The interest rate environment has changed fairly dramatically over the past 18 months. At the end of 2022, five year treasury rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, closed at 3.99%, up from the 0.2% to 0.4% range it was bouncing around within during the months preceding February 2021. If one considers this essentially 4% versus 0.5%, then this would represent a 350 bp increase. If CRE financing is assumed at 2.25% over the five year treasury yield, this would mean an interest rate of 2.75% would increase to 6.25%, more than double. Considered practically, the principal and interest (P&I) for a 15 year mortgage, per million, would increase 26% from $9,784 to $12,326. For a 25 year million dollar mortgage, it would increase by 48%, from $6,651 to $9,483. Considering this in reverse, buying power in terms of P&I, i.e. debt per dollar of P&I, decreases by 21% for a 15 year mortgage, 30% for a 25 year, given these assumptions. These are hypothetical assumptions, mind you, but the real effect in the marketplace has at least approached these levels. The bottom line is that buyers utilizing financing to purchase property now have larger monthly debt service expense at the same price, and consequently have reduced buying power. Those buyers paying cash in turn have less competition.

“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.”

~Bob Hope

The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics in a number of different ways (see thisthis, and this).  Borrowing costs are, of course, affected directly, as higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing and thus  negatively affecting demand.  Cap rates tend move over time with interest rates, but not in lockstep, with considered analyses generally concluding that capitalization rates on average move in the same direction as 10-year rates, but only about a third as much, and again not in lockstep.  Interest rates also affect the economy, which in turn affects vacancy and rental rates.

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January 5, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 4, 2023: Last Miami Area Sears Eyed for 800 Resi Units; Miami Gardens Multifamily Trades for $113M; More…

B Group bids $102M for 20 acres in Miami’s Upper Eastside

B Group Capital Management submitted a $102 million stalking horse bid for nearly 20 acres in Miami’s Upper Eastside and El Portal that are tied to a lawsuit alleging EB-5 fraud. The Miami-based… seeks to acquire the former U.S. immigration building site spanning 3.5 acres at 7880 Biscayne Boulevard, and a 15.9-acre former trailer park at 8500 Biscayne Boulevard, court…

Here’s how South Florida real estate bigwigs rang in the new year

South Florida real estate’s biggest players rang in the new year in fabulous style. Brokers and developers went far and wide to celebrate the holiday, hitting the slopes in Aspen, partying in Uruguay, Dubai and Greece, lounging in St. Barts and Thailand, and hobnobbing at high-society soirees in Palm Beach…

Related scores $164M construction loan for Brickell apartment tower

The Related Group secured a $164 million construction loan for a waterfront apartment tower on the site of its planned Baccarat Residences development near downtown Miami. Truist Bank provided the financing to an affiliate of Coconut Grove-based Related. The loan can be increased to up to $340 million, records show. The financing is for 444 Brickell Tower II…

Last Sears In Miami Eyed For 800-Unit Residential Redevelopment

Miami real estate magnate Raanan Katz is looking to tear down the last Sears in Miami city limits and replace it with housing and a park. Katz, who leads retail real estate firm RK Centers and co-owns the Miami Heat, is having discussions with local community groups about a plan to replace the 68-year-old property at 3655 Southwest 22nd St. with two 400-unit apartment buildings…

Miami’s Last Sears Store Eyed for Dense Residential Development

Wary residents of the historic Coral Gate community are in talks with a large-scale developer who wants to tear down a nearby 68-year-old Sears and build a modern residential and retail complex in its place. Raanan Katz of RK Centers, which holds more than ten million square feet of commercial real estate across the country, has owned the Sears property since 1987.

Coral Gables investor Maria Menzel adds another dev site to Edgewater portfolio

Maria Menzel continued her land banking spree in Miami’s Edgewater by acquiring another development site, three months after her last assemblage purchase. A Delaware entity with the same address as a Coral Gables condominium owned by Menzel paid $12.5 million for six vacant parcels at 410, 420 and 432 Northeast 27th Street and 415, 425 and 435 Northeast 26th Terrace

Check out South Florida’s biggest office leases of 2022

7850 Southwest Sixth Court in Plantation with Jazwares’ Judd Zebersky and RMR Group’s Adam Portnoy, Rendering of the 830 Brickell office tower with OKO Group’s Vlad Doronin and Cain International’s Jonathan Goldstein: In most U.S. markets, 2022 was far from a boon for offices. Subleases piled up in California, as tech companies looked to downsize. Facebook parent Meta is…

Forbes Neighborhood To Watch: Miami’s Little River

Long an economically distressed neighborhood with shuttered buildings, Little River, Miami has been methodically taking shape as a champion of local talent, culture and small business, with the city’s top creators and innovators clamoring to set up shop in the area. In effect, the area is undergoing a transformation similar…

Limestone, Orion Purchase Colonial Palms Plaza Shopping Center in Pinecrest for $70.5M

Limestone Asset Management and Orion Real Estate Group have purchased Colonial Palms Plaza, a 188,389-square-foot retail center located in Pinecrest, roughly 20 miles southwest of Miami. The joint venture, doing business as Orion Colonial Plaza LLC, acquired the property for $70.5 million. The property comprises seven buildings and 29 tenants, including Marshalls…

NY firm ARC PE sells Miami Beach mixed-use building at 40% loss

Distressed real estate investor ARC PE scooped up a mixed-use building on the previously popular retail strip of Collins Avenue in Miami Beach, paying 41 percent less than the property’s purchase price a decade ago. Shire Realty sold the three-story building at 826 Collins Avenue for $5 million, according to a news release from the buyer’s broker.

Stephanie Shojaee talks marriage to Masoud, rejection and sexism

Scroll through Stephanie Shojaee’s Instagram and you’ll come across photos and videos of her and her husband Masoud around the world, in Qatar, France, Greece and Miami. She frequently documents her lavish lifestyle with her spouse, co-founder of Shoma Group, and their dog, Pebbles. But she’s shared little about the backlash they faced from Masoud’s adult daughters…

Harbor pays $113M for Miami Gardens rental complex

Harbor Group International paid $113 million for a Miami Gardens apartment complex. Resia sold Oak Enclave Miami at 2301 Northwest 167th Street before year-end, after completing the 420-unit community in June, according to a Harbor Group news release. Robert Given and Troy Ballard of Cushman & Wakefield…

Easton, LBA score $61M construction loan for Hialeah warehouses

Easton Group and LBA Logistics are ready to break ground on their Hialeah industrial project after securing a $61 million construction loan. Principal Life Insurance provided the financing for the joint venture’s two-warehouse development at 4220 West Place, records show. Easton Group and LBA paid $29.4 million for the 26-acre vacant property, currently a truck yard…

Miami board votes to deny hotel plans for Jungle Island

A redesigned 300-room themed hotel and parking garage for Jungle Island met with opposition from the City of Miami’s Urban Development Review Board (UDRB). The board voted 3 to 0 to deny the project as presented. The board makes recommendations to the city’s planning director. Board members expressed several concerns with the new designs, in particular…

City reviews application to raze Coconut Grove Playhouse

The saga surrounding the restoration of the Coconut Grove Playhouse is entering its next act as the county has applied for a special exception to demolish the building. Miami-Dade County filed an application with the City of Miami on Oct. 26 requesting a waiver to permit minor deviations from the Miami 21 Code to allow for demolition within the neighborhood…

Health District plan switches from offices to residences

The developer of a planned high-rise along highway 836 in Miami’s Health District has decided to change the use from office space to residential. The city’s Urban Development Review Board recommended approval of the modified project, with two conditions: hire a dock master for the loading area, and study adding glass into the building’s southeast corner. The applicant is…

Coconut Grove offices nearly full, demand strong

With very limited office space available in Coconut Grove, one of the most desired areas in Miami-Dade County, occupancy is at one of the highest levels there. With a total inventory of 1,245,600 square feet of offices and a vacancy of 8.4%, Coconut Grove currently has no office space under construction, according to CBRE’s Miami Office third quarter report.

Improvement district to celebrate Coconut Grove aviation heritage

Entering the new year, the Coconut Grove Business Improvement District is shifting gears to celebrating the neighborhood’s 150th anniversary, with an ongoing series of events. Themed “Grove Heritage,” the Coconut Grove BID is set to produce monthly events to add magic and memories to all residents and visitors of the Grove, said Cynthia Seymour, the BID’s executive…

Chart – Inflation Watch New Year’s Day 2023: TIPS Spread Indicating 2.33% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on December 30, 2022, the last trading day of 2022. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and oft-quoted…

CRE Experts Round-Up: Top Retail Trends to Expect in 2023

Continuing our annual tradition, we contacted several commercial real estate experts specializing in retail across the country to provide their expertise and predictions regarding what they expect for the retail market with upcoming retail trends moving towards 2023. The overall insights provided by the selected retail professionals are upbeat. Interestingly enough more…

Harbor Group International Acquires Miami Community

Oak Enclave. Image courtesy of Resia Harbor Group International LLC has made its eighth acquisition in the Miami-Dade area with the purchase of Oak Enclave Miami. The Virginia-based company acquired the 420-unit community from Resia for an undisclosed sales price. Cushman & Wakefield’s Robert Given and Troy Ballard brokered the sale, representing both the buyer…

LBA pays $198M for Sweetwater industrial business park

LBA Realty is closing out the year with a mega-priced industrial purchase in Sweetwater. The Irvine, California-based commercial real estate firm paid $198 million for Dolphin Commerce Center at 11200 Northwest 21st Street, 11250 Northwest 25 Street and 11350 Northwest 25 Street, records show. LBA assumed a $50 million mortgage from Northwestern Mutual Life…

Check out the biggest retail leases in South Florida of 2022

O’Reilly Auto Parts took the biggest lease this year at 43,000 square feet. The auto parts retailer inked the 10-year deal at 500 West 49th Street within the Palm Springs Mile mall in Hialeah. The shopping center is part of Great Neck, New York.-based Philips International’s portfolio. O’Reilly Auto Parts, based in Springfield, Missouri, is a publicly traded retailer founded in 1957…

How was the South Florida commercial real estate market in 2022, and what is coming in 2023?

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Miami Airport reaches high for cargo capacity

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$10M Refinancing Arranged for Carolina Springs Plaza Shopping Center in Margate

MMCC has arranged a $10 million loan for the refinancing of Carolina Springs Plaza, a grocery-anchored, 125,500-square-foot shopping center located at 7804-8092 W. Sample Road in Margate. El Bodegon Supermarket has anchored the 13.4-acre property since 2011. Robert Bhat of MMCC’s Miami office arranged the 10-year, fixed-rate loan, which features a 25-year…

Related nabs $56M loan to build FATVillage affordable rentals

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IDI Logistics sells Pompano Beach warehouse for $26M

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Integra plans townhouse rental community near FAU in Boca Raton

Integra Investments wants to build a luxury townhouse community near Florida Atlantic University, the firm’s second real estate play in the Boca Raton market. Integra principal Nelson Stabile said the firm envisions 100 to 120 rental townhouses on 8 acres at 2600 Northwest Fifth Avenue. The Miami-based developer bought the…

Banyan Cay Resort & Golf Club is headed toward foreclosure sale

A lender seeking to recoup $6.3 million in mortgage debt has initiated a UCC foreclosure sale for the distressed Banyan Cay Resort & Golf Club. Banyan Cay Resort Fund has set a Feb. 17 auction for the West Palm Beach hotel and adjacent development sites, according to a notice of sale. Brock Cannon with Newmark is the broker. Moecker Auctions in conjunction with Mannion…

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January 4, 2023

Chart – Inflation Watch New Year’s Day 2023: TIPS Indicating 2.33% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (TIPS Spread)

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on December 30, 2022, the last trading day of 2022. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and oft-quoted measure of expectations for (CPI) inflation in the financial markets. The spread indicates expected inflation, of interest to investors in commercial real estate – more on that below – and for that matter investors of all kinds.

As one can see in these charts, the 5-year TIPS spread hit a high in March, 2022 at 3.59%. As the Fed has maneuvered aggressively to tap inflation down, this has now pulled back to its year end 2022 level of 2.33%, which would be markedly down from the actual inflation of 7.1%, as measured by the CPI, in the year ending November 2022. This indicates that financial markets are confident that inflation is coming down, that the Fed is “on it” and will get the job done, likely sooner rather than later given that five year expectation level as compared to recently inflation readings. Investors are putting their money on a bet that inflation it going to be at this 2.33% level on average for the next five years. This indication may be wrong, of course; traders lose money – cough FTX – all the time, after all. The relevance here is that numbers paying close attention and that are putting their money on the line believe inflation is going to subside.

“I don’t mind going back to daylight saving time. With inflation, the hour will be the only thing I’ve saved all year.”

~Victor Borge

Not Just Opinions, Real Money is on the Line

Real money is at stake with these spreads. TIPS pay interest every six months, based on a fixed rate that is calculated by multiplying the adjusted principal by one-half the calculated interest rate (i.e. half a year’s worth of inflation at that rate). Thus, a “bet” that an investor makes in with these bonds has real financial implications. If actual inflation is higher than priced in the markets, a TIPS buyer will make more that a straight treasury buyer. If it is lower, that TIPS buyer will make less. How much money is at stake? In 2017 Morningstar pegged the market at $1.2 trillion. Thus, every 1/10% difference is a $1.2 billion swing. That is real money by my count.

Also seemingly relevant to the topic of effectiveness of this spready to predict inflation is a research piece put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2019: Inflation expectations and inflation realities: a comparison of the Treasury Breakeven Inflation curve and the Consumer Price Index before, during, and after the Great Recession. It concluded that TBI (Treasury Breakeven Inflation) rates reasonably approximated inflation reality before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009.  It noted that the average and median deviations between TBI rates and their respective annualized CPI-U inflation rates never exceed 81 basis points, and that, moreover, the dispersion of deviations, as measured by standard deviation and range, decreased as the maturity horizon increased. It went further to speculate that given that TBI expectations overshoot actual inflation in the long term and undershoot inflation in the short term, it is likely that the liquidity premium has a considerable effect in the short term but gets more than offset by the inflation premium in the long term.

Generally on Inflation and Commercial Real Estate

What is the impact of inflation on commercial real estate? In the near term, higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are a negative for commercial real estate. Higher rates means larger debt service payments, reducing the buying power of purchasers, and negatively impacting deal economics. It also means makes fixed income investments a more competitive investment, likely pulling capitalization rates (cap rates) up, and thus prices down. Over a longer period, however, the prospect of inflation leads to a principal benefit of commercial property investment, that of its potential as a hedge against inflation. After all, more inflation should lead to higher rent, at least in time.

MIT published an excellent whitepaper on real estate’s ability to keep pace with inflation with data to 2016. They looked at then tendency of retail, multifamily, industrial, and office income and values to keep pace with inflation. The best at keeping pace income-wise was retail, with rent growth of 102% of inflation. Office was the worst performing at a quite dismal 18%. Values across the property types were more consistently kept pace, with retail again doing the best appreciating at 107% of inflation, office again the worst at 74% of inflation. I’ll speculate that the fairly drastic difference between income and value keeping pace with inflation is driven by vacancy. If you’re interested in the topic, read the paper.

Expectations for inflation also come into play with lease structure and due diligence. A lease structure with a fixed rent increase becomes less attractive for a landlord with higher inflation expectations. Similarly, a commercial property being acquired with existing leasing in place that have fixed or capped rent increases looks less attractive as inflation expectations increase. Also, a property being purchased with fixed rate financing will look increasingly attractive if a buyer anticipates inflation fueled increases in income. Inflation, in short, is very important to commercial property investors.

Destinations Related to this TIPS Spread Post:

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January 1, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News December 28, 2022: Pinecrest Retail Trades for $71M, Little Havana Multifamily for $31M, Trio of Walgreen’s for $34M; More…

MetLife sells Pinecrest shopping center to Miami JV for $71M

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Video: Financing Today with Tom Walsh of Grandbridge Real Estate Capital

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Here are South Florida’s biggest industrial sales of 2022

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University of Miami to fight to save Virginia Key fisheries center

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Here are South Florida’s top office sales of 2022

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December 28, 2022

Video: Financing Today with Tom Walsh of Grandbridge Real Estate Capital

Tom Walsh, Senior Vice President at Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, one of the nation’s largest full-service commercial real estate finance firms, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to share an inside look at the current state of commercial real estate financing. Topics discussed include interest rates, LTV (loan to value) rations, DSCR (debt service coverage ratio), underwriting, valuations, and sources of financing. Also discussed is the current appetite of the various financing sources including Fannie, Freddie, HUD, CMBS, Life Co and Banks. They also cover strategies related to commercial real estate loan maturities, workouts, and distress, as well as how this market may shake out in comparison to previous cycles. Considerable time is spent discussing how DSCR is driving down effective LTV ratios as interest rates have increased while cap rates have not.

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December 28, 2022